India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion around 2060, only to start tumbling down after that: UN report

India, which recently surpassed China as the world's most populous country, is projected to hold onto that title for the rest of the century, despite an expected decline in its own population.

The UN's "World Population Prospects 2024" report forecasts a global population peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, followed by a gradual decline. But within this trend, India's trajectory stands out.

India's rise and eventual stabilisation

Currently at 1.45 billion, India's population is expected to climb to a peak of 1.7 billion in the early 2060s. This growth can be attributed to India's still-relatively young population with a high birth rate. However, the report also predicts a decline of 12% after the peak, bringing India's population down to around 1.5 billion by 2100.

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China's shrinking population

China, on the other hand, faces a starkly different demographic future. With a current population of 1.41 billion, China is expected to witness a steady decline. The report predicts a drop to 1.21 billion by 2054 and a staggering 633 million by the end of the century. This sharp decline is primarily driven by China's low fertility rate, currently around one birth per woman on average.

What's behind the shift?

The key factor driving this demographic shift is fertility rate. India's population is still growing due to a higher birth rate, while China's one-child policy for decades and societal changes have resulted in a much lower fertility rate. This means fewer babies are being born to replace the ageing population in China.

A new world order?

The UN report paints a picture of a changing world order. India's rise as the world's most populous nation, coupled with China's decline, has significant social and economic implications. It will be interesting to see how these demographic shifts impact global power dynamics, trade patterns, and resource allocation in the coming decades.

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