The nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in the April-June quarter of 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.5% same quarter of last fiscal year.
The
India's GDP grew by an impressive 8.2% during the financial year 2023-24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew by 7.2% in 2022-23 and 8.7% in 2021-22, according to official data.
Many global rating agencies and multilateral organizations have also revised their growth forecasts for India upwards. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised India's growth projections for 2024 from 6.8% to 7 %, reinforcing the country's status as the fastest-growing economy among emerging markets and developing economies.
The Economic Survey tabled in Parliament last month "conservatively" projected India's
Soon after the GDP figures were released, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran told reporters at a virtual presentation that monsoon progress brightened the agriculture sector outlook, the services sector remained upbeat, and the external sector is stable despite headwinds.
He asserted that election season in India, which somewhat slowed capital investment, had impacted the GDP figures.
Inflation coming back under control and boosting consumption; and the increase in consumption as the overall share of GDP bodes well for the economy, he said.
Here are some of the reactions from experts and economists on the GDP data:
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI Research:
Now with 6.7 % growth in Q1, the new annual projection would be 7.1 %. We believe that GDP growth for FY25 will be a tad lower than the RBI's estimate and 7.0 % growth looks more reasonable.
Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank:
While the 1QFY25 GDP growth has come in softer than expectations, the GVA (gross value added) has remained firm, with non-farm growth holding up well. We retain our GDP growth expectations of 6.9 % in FY2025, aided largely by rural demand and government spending while watching closely the likely fatigue in urban demand, private capex, and pace of global slowdown.
Raj Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge:
For the full year FY25, we anticipate GDP growth to be 7 %, slightly below the RBI's projection of 7.2 %. In the subsequent quarters, the agricultural sector is expected to see improved growth due to a good monsoon, despite ongoing challenges pertaining to its distribution. An increase in the government's capital expenditure in the upcoming quarters and further pick-up in private capex will further support overall growth. Moreover, agri sector recovery and lower inflation will provide boost to consumption recovery in the coming quarters.
Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL:
The low-base effect apart, improvement in agricultural growth, and lower food inflation will augur well for private consumption, particularly in rural areas. Higher agricultural growth will augment income and lower food inflation will improve discretionary spending ability. Net-net, we expect the economy to grow at 6.8 % GDP for this fiscal.
Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers:
Looking ahead, we anticipate full-year GDP growth for the current financial year to align closely with our estimate of 7 %. This robust growth, coupled with falling inflation, is expected to support continued outperformance in the Indian equity market. However, the strong growth figures may prompt the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain the current monetary policy rates throughout 2024.
Dr DK Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India, and Advisory Council to the 16th Finance Commission:
In the first quarter data, there is a clear message that the GoI should accelerate its infrastructure spending to make up for the negative growth in its capital expenditure in the first four months... Unless this is made up and converted into a positive annual growth of 17 % or above, the likelihood is that the annual real GDP growth may fall below 7 %.