India’s strict lockdown saved 100,000 lives, says Chief Economic Advisor

• According to the Economic Survey, imposing a strict lockdown in March 2020 was the best decision the government could have taken.
• India remained under a nationwide lockdown during the months of March, April, May in 2020, with the economy opening up in phases from June 8.
• India’s Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian today said that the stringent lockdown in the country had a major impact on saving lives and recovery.

In the Economic Survey tabled in the Parliament ahead of the Budget Session, the first chapter is about India's policy response to COVID-19. “When history studies India’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, history will come to the conclusion that India’s policy making was mature. WIllingness to take short term pain for long term gain shows the maturity of India’s policy making,” Subramanian said in a press conference.

India had announced a strict nationwide lockdown in March 2020, which was lifted in phases starting June. “By estimating the natural number of cases and deaths expected across countries based on their population, population density, demographics, tests conducted, and the health infrastructure, we compare these estimates with actual numbers to show that India restricted the COVID-19 spread by 37 lakh cases and saved more than 1 lakh lives,” the annual economic survey said. .

The CEA went on to emphasise that data showed that lockdown the biggest impact on curbing COVID-19 infections and deaths⁠— more than other purported causes like immunity, BCG vaccine providing immunity or that the ‘environment we live in reduces death intrinsically’.

The lockdown was criticised by many for either being too strict or for being poorly planned. As the lockdown was announced, lakhs of migrant workers ended up walking back hundreds of kilometres to their hometowns from India’s metropolitan cities due to sudden loss in jobs and livelihood.

It was only on May 1, 2020 that Indian passenger trains resumed movement. “Between May 1 and June 3, more than 5.8 million migrants were transported through specially operated trains and 41 lakh were transported by road,” said a PRS report.

Here’s how states in India performed during lockdown, by managing to restrict COVID-19 spread and saving lives.

States	Impact during lockdown
Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Bihar	Restricted the case spread the best
Kerala, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh	Saved most lives
Maharashtra	Underperformed the most in restricting the spread of cases and in saving lives

Source: India Economic Survey 2020-21

The lockdown in India also led to the V- shaped economic recovery, says the Economic Survey

With the declining number of cases, India’s economy has also been recovering, which is evident in the GDP performance. The Economic Survey also said that while the GDP may contract by 7.7% in the current fiscal, the real growth will be seen in FY22 with an 11% GDP growth.

Quarter	Contraction in India’s GDP
April-June, 2020	23.9%
July-September	7.5%

GDP stands for gross domestic product or, in short, national income.

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