European, US data can't be extrapolated to project COVID-19 cases in India: Mazumdar-Shaw
In an interview to , the Executive Chairpersonbio-pharmaceuticals major Biocon Ltd also suggested creatingsmaller red zones instead of classifying entire district asone so that economic activity picks up and supply chain is notcut-off.
She called for empowering district administrations inmanagement of the pandemic with a mandate to test thepopulation and provide treatment for the needy.
On some reports that COVID-19 would peak in India inJune-July, Mazumdar-Shaw retorted: there are so many modelsdoing the rounds projecting so many things and underlinedthat one has to go with real data.
We are extrapolating too much from other areas (Europeand the US) which have not done what we have done.
I really don't think we should extrapolate data fromEuropean data, or US data or western data , she said.
Mazumdar-Shaw noted that India had declared lockdownwhen the country had 500 positive cases, while Italy had doneso when it had 9,000 cases, and the UK 6,700 cases.
So the burden of disease was much higher in thosecountries when they enforced lockdown when compared to what wedid.
And by the way, the kind of preemptive measures thatIndia took in terms of quarantining, curfew, lockdown,surveillance and adhering strictly to lockdown protocols aresomething which most countries have not done , she pointedout.
She recalled how health officials were calling uptravelers who came from abroad for two weeks as part of strictsurveillance at an early stage.
Which country has done so much? There was a very strictsurveillance even in early stages; so we must appreciate allthose measures that were taken, even during the lockdown.
The police have done an outstanding job in strictmonitoring .
The kind of strict and preemptive measures that India hastaken is standing the country in good stead and we should notstart preparing models based on European or western onesbecause those are very different, Mazumdar-Shaw said.
Those (European and the US) models depend a lot on homefor the elderly, they have lot of these.
Look at the number of deaths that have taken place in thehome for aged in the western world, its huge, whether it isItaly, or the UK or France, or anywhere in Europe, see howmany people have died in those homes.
We don't have such social structures in India.
We don't have a large number of old people dying atone time.
So, can you extrapolate from that data and impose it onIndia? No, because our social structure is so different,that's why I am skeptical of these predictions and modelswhich are based on western models, you cannot extrapolate inAsia, she said.
I would do local extrapolation of data, I would not tryand build mathematical model based on European or US data.
I would rather build mathematical models based onIndian data, state-wise, Mazumdar-Shaw said.
She also opined that red zoning has to be made smaller,saying one cannot make classify a whole district as a redzone.
You should actually start creating smaller sub-sets ofred zones, because, otherwise, your whole supply chain willbe blocked.
That's not good, she said.
You cannot make an entire district red because districtsare too large.
You should sub-divide districts into red areas.
If you can create orange and green zones within adistrict, it will be better .
According to her, management of Covid-19 pandemicshould be left to district administrations, who have to beempowered and told to test, track, quarantine patients andprovide treatment for the needy.
That way if you start doing it, you will really be ableto control the virus, burden of the viral disease.
That's the way to do it.
Economic activity should be brought into immediate effectin orange and green zones, she added. RSROH ROH