Cyclone Fengal? IMD forecasts heavy rains across Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Kerala this week

A cyclonic circulation over the East Equatorial Indian Ocean and the Southeast Bay of Bengal has evolved into a low-pressure area, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting its intensification into a depression by November 25. This system is expected to develop into a deep depression, with varying models indicating the possibility of it strengthening into a cyclonic storm.

At least four different monitoring systems have suggested that a mild cyclonic storm is likely to make landfall near Puducherry by the end of this week. If this prediction holds true, the cyclone will be named Fengal.

However, IMD’s RSMC has only highlighted the probability of a deep depression forming by November 26, with a minimal likelihood of cyclonic storm development. Despite this, the system is expected to pack a punch across South India.

Rainfall and regional impact

• Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal: Heavy to very heavy rainfall (64.5–204.5 mm) is forecast between November 25–27, with widespread downpours on November 28–29.
• Kerala and Mahe: Light to moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorms expected from November 27–29.
• Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam: Isolated thunderstorms and moderate rainfall likely between November 27–30.
• Rayalaseema: Light rain anticipated from November 27–28.

IMD has issued an orange alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from November 25–27, urging residents to prepare for heavy rainfall and potential disruptions. Citizens are advised to stay updated on weather developments and prioritise safety as the system progresses.