If India goes to vote today, the result will be cacophony: Survey

• The ruling coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is likely to lose one third of its seats in the Lok Sabha.
  
• However, right now, the mood of the nation, as the survey is called, seems to be dissonant.
  
• The only solace for the NDA is that its vote share would be higher than the largest rival.

Indians will go to vote for the next government in April and the results will be out in May. But if it were to be held today, there will be cacophony instead of a broad consensus-- like the one that put Narendra Modi in the prime minister’s seat with a majority in the lower house of the Parliament in 2014. These are the findings of a survey held by an Indian media house, the India Today Group in association with Karvy Insights.


The ruling coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is likely to lose one third of its seats in the Lok Sabha. However, the rivals’ gains will be split between different political parties, all well short of a majority.


The only solace for the NDA is that its vote share would be higher than the largest rival, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress.

In the past, such divided mandates have led to messy political alliances and short-lived governments between 1989 and 1991, and again between 1996 and 1999. However, India has also witnessed stable coalitions including the one that is governing the country today.

However, right now, the mood of the nation, as the survey is called, seems to be dissonant-- one that allows all political factions room to flex their muscle. There is still four months to go before the polls and India is a noisy, ever-evolving, and the largest democracy in the world.