How To Track The Economy When The Government Stops Publishing Data
A government shutdown is looking likely.
In that event, regular economic data releases put out by the Department of Labor and the Commerce Department - for example, the monthly nonfarm payrolls report - won't be released.
A lot of the datapoints that economy watchers follow these days, however, are put out by private firms, so investors will still be able to piece together a reasonable picture of how economic growth is progressing, even if the government shuts down.
The most-anticipated government-released report in the coming days is the monthly nonfarm payrolls (a.k.a. "jobs") report, which is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on Friday.
On Wednesday, we get payroll-processing firm ADP's estimate of the change in total private-sector payrolls in September.
"The ADP report has improved significantly as a forecasting input for private payrolls over the past year," says Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joe LaVorgna. "Therefore, in the event that the employment report is delayed, we will be comfortable relying on the ADP series as a close proxy of September hiring."
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release two economic datapoints this week: August construction spending, due out Tuesday morning, and August factory orders, to be released Thursday.
While there may not be a particularly close analogue for construction spending in private-sector data releases, investors can arguably look at a host of non-government data releases to get a feel for the pace of U.S. manufacturing growth while the government remains shut down.
On Tuesday morning, at 8:58 AM ET, Markit releases the final results of its manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) survey, which tracks metrics like growth in production and new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
The ISM's monthly report on manufacturing - due out at 10 AM on Tuesday - also tracks metrics similar to those in Markit's PMI survey.
The Commerce Department is also scheduled to release August trade balance data next Tuesday, October 8, and August wholesale inventories data on Wednesday, October 9, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September producer price index on Friday, October 11. If the government is still shut down, investors can again revert to the Markit PMI and ISM manufacturing releases, which both track growth in imports, exports, inventories, and input costs.
Regarding trade data, ambitious economists can always piece together a report by compiling the stats published by the U.S.'s various foreign trading partner.
Finally, retail sales are also due to be published by the Commerce Department next Friday, October 11. Perhaps the best proxy for this datapoint is the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Index, published every Tuesday morning at 7:45 AM by the International Council of Shopping Centers.