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How 3 Big Economic Stories Will Affect Emerging Markets In 2014 [DIAGRAM]

Dec 9, 2013, 23:35 IST

Emerging markets saw money rush out over the summer of 2013 on the first chatter that the Fed was considering tapering its $85 billion monthly asset purchase program. This also caused emerging market currencies to take a hit earlier this year.

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There are still concerns that a Fed taper could hurt emerging markets going forward.

But Barclays thinks "the threat of a broader exodus of flows out of EM seems exaggerated."

"We expect a stabilisation of EM private sector capital flows in 2014, potentially with a shift in EM portfolio flows from fixed income into equity," they said.

They identify three major global themes in 2014: 1. U.S. monetary policy 2. Economic recovery in the U.S. 3. China rebalancing. The direction that each of these takes will have significant impacts on emerging markets.

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Barclays

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