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Home Prices Will Zigzag For Years

Mamta Badkar   

Home Prices Will Zigzag For Years
Stock Market1 min read

San Francisco

El Frito via Flickr

December home prices were up 11.8 percent year-over-year, the largest gain since 2006, according to RadarLogic's latest RPX monthly housing market report.

But this isn't a "real and sustainable" recovery according to Quinn W. Eddins, Director of Research at RadarLogic.

For that, we need a rise in home prices that are driven by job growth and improving consumer confidence.

In the absence of this, Eddins says rising home prices will impact demand, cause a rise in supply and then reduce the pace of rise in home prices or even reverse it.

Eddins expects home prices to temporarily decline again this year, but a decline will prompt speculative demand cool housing starts and sales.

"Home prices are likely [to] follow such a saw-tooth pattern for a number of years, until consumer demand increases and inventories of distressed homes return to historical norms," writes Eddins.

Though Eddins does warn that the impact of investors on this saw-tooth pattern is hard to estimate.

Corporate investor transactions (purchases) increased 62 percent year-over-year in November 2012, driven by financial institutions building their portfolio of rental homes. These purchases accounted for 12 percent of all transactions in 2012, up from 8 percent the previous year.

What's more, all transactions were up just 8 percent, while non-corporate investor purchases were up just three percent.

"While the overall RPX transaction count may suggest a healthy gain in sales activity, most of that gain took the form of purchases by corporate investors. When we look only at non-investor purchases, the year on year gain is much less remarkable."

Sales last year were driven by investor activity, low interest rates, and a shift in sales mix and none of this is expected to have a lasting impact on home prices.

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