Here's your preview of this week's big market-moving events

A US government shutdown was averted last week as Congress punted their budget negotiations to December.

Speaking of December, more and more economists have now decided that the US economy no long looks good enough to justify the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy with an interest rate hike by the end of the year.

Following the disappointing US jobs report, the futures market is now implying a 55.5% probability that the first rate hike (since June 2006) will happen in March 2016.

"The jobs market struck out in September as far as the Fed's concerned," Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chris Rupkey said. "No rate hike in October now certainly, and 2015 looks increasingly impossible. If the Committee was looking for more improvement this isn't it."

Keep in mind, there are still two months worth of data to field before the Fed's December meeting. So as we prepare to field a new week of economic data, here's your Monday Scouting Report:

Top Stories

• Jobs flop. The US economy added just 142,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, missing expectations for a gain of 201,000. Even worse, August's payrolls number was revised down to 136,000 from 173,000. And while the unemployment rate was basically unchanged at at 5.1%, the labor force participation rate fell to a 38-year low of 62.4%. Worries of low inflation were exacerbated by the fact that average hourly earnings had no month-over-month growth, reflecting a measly 2.2% year-over-year growth rate.
  
  "We are struggling to find much silver lining in the September jobs report," Credit Suisse's Jay Feldman said. Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg went so far as to argue that the "real" payroll number was -265,000.
  
  "In recent weeks we have argued that the FOMC is on a narrow path to liftoff in December-needing to see continued solid domestic growth, better inflation trends and easier financial conditions," Goldman Sachs economists wrote. "At the moment we look to be off that path-domestic activity has slowed somewhat, and neither inflation nor financial conditions have improved-and we now see action at the December meeting as a close call."
  
  
  
  
• Divergence. From a US perspective, the global economy can be summed up in two stories: 1) the US consumer is looking great relative to 2) everything else, which has been somewhere between okay and not good. But with the Fed now "monitoring developments abroad," For more on this, read Myles Udland's "Here's the good news."
  
  The US consumer confirmed this story by purchasing automobiles at the fastest rate in a decade. Indeed, the US consumer has offset the entirety of the economic fallout from the global slowdown. These are encouraging signs amid the disappointing jobs report. RBC's Tom Porcelli explains: "... auto sales just shot up to a fresh cycle high of 18.2 million (also the best since 2005) while mortgage purchase applications through late September were running 20% above year- ago levels. Suffice it to say this is as "timely" as it gets in terms if gauging the current household psyche.Consumers do not commit on these types of purchases if the jobs landscape is all of a sudden crumbling beneath their feet. This is an important point in the context of what we are trying to drive home. We are not attempting to dismiss this payroll report. If the report says only 142,000 jobs were created in September then so be it. Instead what we are highlighting is that despite today's modest outcome all of those other things we have just highlighted continue to perform well." For more on this theme, read Bob Bryan's "The way Americans spend on 3 things reveal just how confident they really are."
  
  

Fedspeak

• In the wake of Friday's disappointing jobs report, Fed-watchers will be very interested to see what the members of the Fed are not thinking. Here's Wells Fargo's Sam Bullard with who's on deck: "On Tuesday, Kansas City Fed President George (voting member in 2016, hawk) speaks in Chicago with a keynote speech titled "The Faster Payments Imperative: Transforming the Market." Also on Monday, San Francisco President Williams (voter, moderate) speaks in San Francisco to the Urban Land Institute on the U.S. outlook. On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Williams speaks at Gonzaga University. On Thursday, St. Louis Fed President Bullard (voter member in 2016, hawk) speaks in St. Louis, giving the welcoming remarks at the Children's Savings Account symposium. Later that day, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (non-voter, dove) speaks in Mankato, MN. Also on Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Williams speaks in Spokane, WA on the U.S. economic outlook. On Friday, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (voter, moderate) speaks in New York about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy. Also on Friday, Chicago Fed President Evans (voter, dove) speaks in Milwaukee with a speech titled "A Perspective on Monetary Policy.""

Economic Calendar

• Markit US Services PMI (Mon): Economists estimate this services index 55.6 in September from 56.1 in August. "Business optimism slumped to one of the lowest levels seen since the global financial crisis, inflows of new business rose at the weakest rate for eight months and job creation slipped to a six-month low," Markit's Chris Williamson said. "Growth is also becoming increasingly reliant on the services economy as manufacturers struggle against the strong dollar and weak demand in export markets."
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Mon): Economists estimate this services index fell to 57.5 in September from 59.0 in August. Here's Wells Fargo's John Silvia: "With the service sector less affected by marked declines in commodity prices and dollar price appreciation, the gap between the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices is the widest in more than six years. New orders and business activity continue to post strong readings with the score above the six-month average in August. With the exception of mining, all industries reported growth during the month with transportation, warehousing, real estate, rentals and construction showing the strongest gains. The pulse on inflation in the report is consistent with the low inflation rate. We expect the reading to remain elevated in September, but will likely ease another notch."
• Trade Balance (Tues): Economists estimate the trade deficit widened to $47.1 billion in August from $41.8 billion in July. From Credit Suisse: "The new advance trade in goods report released this week showed a significant widening in the goods balance to -$67.2B, the second largest deficit of the cycle. Goods exports recorded a steep 3.5% decline with weakness across a range of categories. Meanwhile, goods imports continued to be supported by solid domestic demand. This Tuesday's report will include services trade figures. The services balance has been running a consistent surplus just under $20B."
• Consumer Credit (Wed): Economists estimate consumer credit balances increased by $19.5 billion in August. From Nomura: "Consumer credit growth has been robust this year, primarily due to growth in non-revolving credit, but revolving credit growth has also been holding up well relative to other stages in the recovery. Sustained growth in revolving consumer credit would suggest that consumers are more confident about their finances and could provide more of a boost for spending going forward."
• Initial Jobless Claims (Thurs): Economists estimate initial claims fell to 274,000 from 277,000 a week ago. Here's HSBC's James Pomeroy: "The 4-week average was 270,750, close to the lowest level in several decades. This week's claims reading partially covers the start of a new quarter, which sometimes leads to extra volatility."
• FOMC Minutes (Thurs): At 2:00 p.m. ET, the Fed will publish the minutes from its September 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Here's Wells Fargo's Sam Bullard: "The FOMC minutes will offer a deeper dive into how the FOMC reached its decision to pass on a September rate hike. The minutes should delve into the Fed's discussion on recent inflation weakness, labor market developments and long-run views on economic growth. Of particular importance will be the dialogue surrounding the insertion of the global and financial market developments lines in the FOMC policy statement."

Market Commentary

The stock market story continues to be an uninspiring one as everything these days seems to be putting pressure on earnings growth. Sentiment towards the market ranges from bearish to panicked.

What's Wall Street saying? In recent weeks, strategists from UBS, Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, and Deutsche Bank have all cut their targets for the S&P 500. While it's arguably a treacherous time to be a stock picker, the new quarter means the big wirehouses are touting their top stock picks (see here and here). Wall Street seems to be particularly high on the banged up health care sector.

The most interesting call of the week arguably comes from Deutsche Bank's David Bianco. Following the disappointing jobs report, Bianco agreed that the Fed would keep interest rates very low for much longer than expected. This is bad news for banks, which he said currently face "spartan interest rate conditions."

"We see a better chance of landing men on Mars before a full normalization of nominal and real interest rates, especially 10yr yields, to historical norms," Bianco said. "We doubt 10yr Treasury yields exceed 3% for the rest of this cycle."

Bianco cut his year-end target on the S&P 500 to 2,050 from 2,100, which was actually a target that was revised down from 2,150 on September 18.