Here's What Wall Street Is Saying About The Jobs Report
Job growth failed to stage the snap back that much of Wall Street expected after an unseasonally harsh winter was said to weigh on the numbers over the past several months.
The reactions are starting to pour in. Here's what the Street is saying.
NEIL DUTTA, HEAD OF U.S. ECONOMICS AT RENAISSANCE MACRO: "Conditions in the labor market continue to improve but remain far from good. The March employment report has something for everyone except economic growth bears. If you are a bull, aggregate hours continue to rise, supporting the idea that the weakness in Q1 was weather related and likely to be short-lived. If you are a dove on the FOMC, you can point to the rise in participation, steady unemployment rate and flat growth in earnings as a way to reiterate the idea that rate hikes remain in the distance. If you are a hawk on the FOMC, there is nothing in this report to suggest that tapering should not continue."
MILLAN MULRAINE, DEPUTY HEAD OF U.S. RESEARCH AND STRATEGY AT TD SECURITIES: "Despite the weak headline performance this was a solid labor market report, with a combined 229K jobs being added and rising labor market participation, the underlying tone of this report was quite encouraging. A 200K print on the headline number is likely to be seen as a critical hurdle for the labor market, however, given broad-based strength in this report there is every indication that we may be well on our way to achieving this outcome very soon. The main takeaway from this report is that the labor market is continuing to bounce out of the weather-induced slump of earlier this year, and while the pace of rebound remains slower than we expected, we take encouragement from the strong showing in almost every other aspect of this report."
ANDREW WILKINSON, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT INTERACTIVE BROKERS: "Most sectors added a decent slew of jobs in March in a sign that employers are warming to hiring as they feel the subtleties of strengthening final demand. Retailers, for example, by adding 21,000 positions all but wiped out total losses sustained over two prior readings. Professional hiring rose by a solid 57,000, down from a February gain of 81,000, which was the strongest in exactly one year. That number included the addition of 29,000 temporary workers typically read as a precursor to sustained hiring. Construction companies added 19,000 workers while mining and logging industries added 7,000 positions. Food services companies added 30,000 positions lifting the annual change to 323,000 positions. Leisure and hospitality added 29,000 positions. Net government hiring was flat during the month."
MICHELLE GIRARD, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT RBS: "A very straight forward report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 192,000, both overall and in the private sector. Both readings were in line with their 12-month moving averages (+187,000 and +189,000, respectively). Weather was still cold in March, but not as bad as February. So no weather rebound, but also no real weather drag and end up with a trend gain. The conclusion then is that employment conditions are pretty much the same as they have been last few years. This report should not move the dial in either direction for either the market or the Fed. Hours worked rebounded -- this was where weather impact has been most evident. The average workweek rose to 34.5 hours, back to the level it was in November (from January-November 2013, the average workweek held between 34.4 hours and 34.5 hours). Hourly earnings were flat following a 0.4% jump last month (which we suspected was distorted by the weather, as hours worked were down due to weather but for many workers, pay was unchanged so, average hourly earnings go up). On a year/year basis, earnings slipped from 2.2% to 2.1%. While much was made the February uptick, doesn't appear to be much going on in terms of wage growth."
ALAN RUSKIN, GLOBAL HEAD OF G10 FX STRATEGY AT DEUTSCHE BANK: "Mixed payrolls data works with most of the FOMC thoughts that the labor market will give them plenty of time before needing to respond to the recovery. In terms of impact, this is not a great number for rates, FX and equities vol; will take some of the steam out of my favored short Eurodollar rate trades (though still a believer multi-month); will be helpful for FX carry, fitting in 'sweet spot' for EM and commodity currencies. Suspect carry shorts will still be spread between JPY, EUR and USD in that favored order. On the positive growth side: 1. Large gains in hours worked, so the broadest measure of activity, aggregate hours worked, is up a very healthy 0.7% on the month as payback to the soft -0.1% decline the prior mth. 2. Payrolls In March largely as expected, with upward revisions to Feb (now a decent 197K) and Jan making payrolls slightly better than expected. Weather effect in prior mth notably Feb is now much more muted. 3. Manufacturing hours worked very strong, offsetting subdued -1K manufacturing employment. Construction employment still solid despite mixed housing data. 4. The rise in UE rate came in face of large 476K household employment gain. Negative side: 1. Uptick in UE rate, even for 'good reasons"(rise in participation rate) still buys the Fed time and works with a view that participation will rise as the economy improves. 2. Broad U6 rate up 0.1% to 12.7% is disappointing. 3. Flat hourly earnings (again distorted by large hours gain) taken in tandem with 0.4% prior gain, works against idea of much additional wage pressures."
KIT JUCKES, GLOBAL STRATEGIST AT SOCIETE GENERALE: "I've been told I am not thumping the table much on this trip to the US, and have happily conceded that I am waiting for something to change, rather than sure when it will. The US is generating jobs at a pace consistent with steady but unspectacular growth, the Fed has outlined its monetary policy normalisation framework and investors have accepted it, and concluded that if rates are heading to 3.5-4pct, there is little to fear. The big threat to the vol-selling, carry-seeking consensus is a pick up in wage growth and hence in inflation expectations. Well, we can put that to bed for another month as wage growth dipped in an otherwise unexciting nfp report. 2.2pct y/y for non-supervisory workers, 2.1pct overall. Meh!!"
IAN SHEPHERDSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT PANTHEON MACRO: "The payroll details show a slightly smaller increase in core NSA payrolls than we expected and a surprise dip in the NSA birth/death contribution (75K compared to 92K in March '13) but the seasonal factor was little changed from last year, adding a modest 23K compared to March '13. Elsewhere, note the unch hourly earnings offset the weather-distorted 0.4% Feb gain; still no real sign of an acceleration in the trend, despite other evidence of labor market tightening. Hours worked rebounded strongly, with the 0.7% gain more than making up for the 0.1% Feb dip, and the workweek was strong too. Overall, then, a solid return to form. Hawks will fret over the sustained payroll strength while doves will point to the (very) tentative signs of rising participation. The jury is out, but tapering continues."
SCOTT BUCHTA, HEAD OF FIXED INCOME STRATEGY AT BREAN CAPITAL: "Wage growth remains stagnant and underemployment is still elevated, which had led to slack in the Labor markets. 'Slack' may well become the new buzz word for the second quarter as the markets look to evaluate structural changes in the labor markets and evaluate when the FOMC may first begin to raise rates. We remain in the 'lower for longer' camp as far as rates go, although we now believe that the Fed will try to wind down QE3 by the end of this year."
ADRIAN MILLER, DIRECTOR OF FIXED INCOME STRATEGY AT GMP SECURITIES: "So what does the NFP report tell us? Clearly the strong upside revision in the February report more than offset the slight miss in the March report. But we did not get the catch-up move we expected from depressed job growth in December and January, possibly due in part to the January and February revisions. So if we incorporate the March report and previous revisions we would characterize the report in aggregate as being largely in line even as the household survey recorded somewhat better results than the establishment survey. From the market's standpoint with the labor market in better shape than initially expected as evidenced by the revisions equity prices are moving higher. And yet, the labor market is not displaying signs of being poised to record robust growth, which means a steady as she goes approach for the Fed as the probability of a first half 2015 rate hike diminished which plays well for the bond market that is seeing yields fall post report. Net net, the economy is improving and has largely moved past the weather's negative impact and the labor market is gaining momentum albeit modestly, so all indications suggest we should be able to hit our full year GDP growth rate of +3.0% as the unemployment rate slides near 6% by year end."
More to come as we get it...