Here's The Smartest Way To Bet On The Super Bowl
The best piece of advice we can give you is to treat the Super Bowl like it’s just another game. In other words, don’t step out just because it’s the Super Bowl and risk five or ten times your normal bet.
Ravens money last week pushed the point spread down to 49ers -3.5 at a lot of sports books. But we’re starting to see more 4s pop back up, and that’s where we see the game closing -4 feels like the right number. So if you like the 49ers on Sunday, you may want to grab the 3.5 while you still can.
Linemakers Rick Herron and Richie Baccellieri have different opinions on the game, but they can both win their bets. Rick is leaning to the dog and thinks there’s a chance he’ll be able to get them at +4.5. Richie likes the 49ers on the money line (-170).
We’ve told you this before, but the value is typically with the favorite on the Super Bowl money line. The public likes to take its shots on the underdog to win outright at plus-money, and the books adjust accordingly. That means there’s no value with the dog on the money line.
“The value is always stripped on the underdog money-line by about 20 percent, because that’s the side the majority of money-line bettors will take,” Micah Roberts wrote last week. “If wanting some plus-money on the dog, the better value is playing a few of the special point-spread props that are booked as their own entity and not tied in with the game.”
Want a can’t-lose betting strategy? Well, one doesn’t exist. But Richie suggests putting yourself in a situation where you can minimize your risk and maximize your potential win. That strategy involves betting the 49ers on the money line, and taking the Ravens plus the points.
Here’s how that could work:
Bet $170 to win $100 on the 49ers on the money line; also bet $165 to win $150 on the Ravens at +4. It’s impossible to lose both bets, yet you can win both.
If San Francisco wins by 5 or more, you win $100 on the 49ers money-line bet, but lose $165 on the Ravens. Net loss of $65.
If Baltimore wins outright, you lose $175 on the 49ers money line, but win $150 on the Ravens with the point spread. Net loss $25.
But if the 49ers win by a field goal or less, you cash both tickets. Profit of $250.
And if the 49ers win by exactly 4, you push on the Ravens and claim your $100 winning on the money line bet. Net profit of $100.
So if you’re willing to put yourself in a worst-case scenario of losing $65, you can set yourself up for a tidy $250 win – and have a heck of a lot of fun watching the biggest game of the year.