Here's how the 10-year yield moved ever since the US issued bonds to pay off Revolutionary War debt
"The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to a 220-year low of 1.45% in July 2012," Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Michael Hartnett noted. "The bond has since flirted with that low but has yet to breach it."
At 2.11% today, the 10-year yield continues to be historically low.
"In the past 3 years the direction of Treasury yields has been buffeted by global deflation fears and US recovery hopes," Hartnett said noting recent swings.
In a research note published Sunday, Hartnett offers this very long-term chart of the 10-year Treasury note yield going back to 1790, which is when the US government issued bonds to pay off Revolutionary War debt.
From his report:
- 1790-1902: erratic yield fluctuations and then a sustained decline in yields to below 3%.
- 1902-1920: the First Bear Bond Market, yields rise from 3% to 5-6%.
- 1920-1946: the Great Bull Bond Market, yields decline from 5-6% to below 2%.
- 1946-1981: the Second Bear Bond Market, yields soar from 2% to above 15% during 1981.
- 1981-2012: the Greatest Bull Bond Market, as yields tumble from 15% to 1.4% in 2012.
Here's the chart from Hartnett's report.