Here is every NFL playoff scenario with just one week remaining
In the NFC, the six playoff teams are already set, but the seeding is still very much up in the air. The Vikings and Packers will play for the NFC North title, while the loser will drop into the wild card.
At the top half of the NFC, both the Panthers and Cardinals are guaranteed first-round byes, but the top-seed, and the home field advantage that comes with it, is yet to be decided.
Meanwhile, the AFC is still a logjam. A variety of scenarios will decide which team secures home field advantage, which teams secure first-round byes, and which teams secure the wild card. Monday night's Broncos vs. Bengals game will help give us a better sense of the AFC's playoff picture, but ultimately nothing is certain until after Week 17 ends.
Below you'll find every playoff scenario. Note that all percentages are courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.
AFC
New England Patriots (12-3) - clinched playoff berth.
- Won AFC East, guaranteed a first-round bye.
- Can clinch home field advantage with a Week 17 win in Miami; or with losses by both Denver and Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) - clinched playoff berth.
- Won AFC North.
- Can clinch a first-round bye with a Week 16 win against Denver; or with a Week 17 win and a Denver loss; or if Kansas City wins and Denver loses in Week 17.
- Can secure home field advantage in AFC with Week 16 and Week 17 wins and a New England loss in Week 17.
Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) - clinched playoff berth.
- Can win AFC West with Week 17 win and a Denver loss in either Week 16 or Week 17; or if Denver loses out.
Denver Broncos (10-4) - 94% chance to make playoffs.
- Can clinch a playoff berth with a win in Week 16 (Monday night) or Week 17; or with a Pittsburgh loss in Week 17.
- Can clinch a first-round bye with wins in Week 16 and Week 17.
- Can win AFC West with a win in Week 16 or 17 and a Kansas City loss.
- Can secure home field advantage in AFC with Week 16 and Week 17 wins and a New England loss in Week 17.
Houston Texans (8-7) - 99% chance to make playoffs.
- Can win AFC South with a Week 17 win; or with an Indianapolis loss in Week 17; or if Cincinnati beats Denver in Week 16.
New York Jets (10-5) - 61% chance to make playoffs.
- Can clinch wild card spot with a Week 17 win against Buffalo; or with a Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland in Week 17; or if the Broncos lose final two games.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) - 45% chance to make playoffs.
- Can clinch a wild card spot with Week 17 win and a Jets loss to Buffalo; or with a win and consecutive losses by the Broncos in Weeks 16 and 17 losses by the Broncos. The Steelers went from a 90% chance to make the playoffs to a 45% chance with a loss on Sunday to the Ravens.
Indianapolis Colts (7-8) - <1% chance to make the playoffs.
- Can only make the playoffs by winning the AFC South, and in order to win the AFC South the Colts would need a Week 17 win and nine other scenarios to all play out concurrently.
NFC
Carolina Panthers (14-1) - clinched playoff berth.
- Won NFC South; guaranteed a 1st-round bye.
- Can clinch home field advantage with a Week 17 win or tie; or if Arizona loses in Week 17.
Arizona Cardinals (13-2) - clinched playoff berth.
- Won NFC West; guaranteed a 1st-round bye.
- Can clinch home field advantage in NFC with a Week 17 win and a Carolina loss.
Washington Redskins (8-7) - clinched playoff berth.
- Won AFC East.
Seattle Seahawks (10-5) - clinched playoff berth.
- Secured a wild card spot.
- A Week 17 win against Arizona guarantees Seattle the 5th seed; a loss would drop them to the 6th seed only if Minnesota beats Green Bay.
Minnesota Vikings (10-5) - clinched playoff berth.
- Wins NFC North with a win against Green Bay in Week 17
- A loss against Green Bay drops Vikings to 6th seed, regardless of Seattle's Week 17 result.
Green Bay Packers (10-5) - clinched playoff berth.
- Wins NFC North with a win or tie against Minnesota.
- A loss against Minnesota drops Vikings to either 5th or 6th seed, depending on outcome of Seattle's Week 17 game. If the Packers and Seahawks both lose in Week 17, the Packers would secure the 5th seed and Seattle would drop to the 6th seed due to head-to-head.