Here Comes The Number That Can Make China Look Like Europe

Reuters/Aly Song

Thursday night at 8:30 PM EST, China will release December figures for its producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI). These are numbers associated with inflation.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect CPI to come at around 1.5%, as opposed to 1.4% at the same time last year. PPI is estimated to come in at -3.1% as opposed to -2.7% at this time last year. 

These numbers are key for tracking a potential global demand slow down, and economists are especially worried about that since deflation has taken hold in Europe officially.

Societe Generale

In China, economists like Societe Generale's Wei Yao are especially watching PPI. PPI tells us how much money producers are getting for their goods. That, she argued in a note last year, is the number that best reflects the country's specific deflationary problems - problems that the government has done little to combat.

"China's debt problem lies with the corporate sector, and so PPI deflation can cause more damage to debt dynamics than CPI deflation. The cure should be capacity consolidation and debt restructuring, rather than
another stimulus package targeted to boost investment demand," she wrote.

Stay tuned.