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Here comes the jobs report ...

Aug 26, 2024, 03:47 IST
Justin Sullivan/GettyThe Bureau of Labor Statistics will at 8:30 a.m. ET release the monthly jobs report.

Economists forecast that nonfarm payrolls grew by 182,000 in May, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.4%, the lowest level in a decade. That's the more popular, official rate, which is lower than the U6 unemployment rate that includes people who are working part time for economic reasons. That rate is higher, at 8.6%.

Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. "In one of the greater recent puzzles in the labor market, over the past six months, average hourly earnings (AHE) have been growing at a slower rate than the previous six months," Lewis Alexander, Nomura's chief economist, said in a preview.

Alexander forecasts another month of sluggish wage growth because of a calendar quirk: the survey week for the jobs report, which usually includes the 12th of the month, was different from the week of May 15, when many workers get paid.

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Two industries to watch in this report are retail trade, amid a wave of department store closures, and leisure and hospitality, for signs that spending is strong into summer vacation season.

More to come ...

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