Here comes the jobs report ...
At 8:30 am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March report on employment.
Via Bloomberg, here's a quick overview of what Wall Street is looking for:
- Nonfarm payrolls: +245,000
- Unemployment rate: 5.5%
- Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.2%
- Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +2.0%
- Average weekly hours worked: 34.6
The most bullish forecast among Wall Street economists is Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro, who expects nonfarm payrolls grew by 280,000.
David Mericle at Goldman Sachs is forecasting nonfarm payrolls grew by 220,000 in March with the unemployment rate staying unchanged at 5.5%. Mericle notes that the underlying trend points to another strong month of job gains, but says initial claims data, the ADP report, manufacturing employment indicators, and job cuts point to a below-consensus print.
Among other Wall Street economists, Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna expects payroll gains of 225,000 and Jim O' Sullivan at High Frequency Economics expects payroll gains of 245,000.
The key part of the report, however, will be wages, as a lack of meaningful wage growth has been the missing piece of the labor market recovery.
We'll have complete coverage and complete reaction LIVE when the numbers drop.