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HERE COMES THE FOMC...

Sam Ro   

HERE COMES THE FOMC...

federal reserve building tourist

REUTERS/Gary Cameron

A tourists uses a video camera atop a Big Bus double-decker tour bus as the tour passes the Federal Reserve Building headquarters in Washington.

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today and publishes its monetary policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET.

There will be no press conference and there will be no updates to the Fed's economic forecasts.

"We expect little change in the FOMC statement and a further $10B taper at the upcoming FOMC meeting," said UBS's Sam Coffin. This is the consensus on Wall Street.

"However, a weak GDP headline is likely to collide with a Fed intent on continue tapering. The weak GDP/continued taper may be difficult to explain in an already overly complicated FOMC statement. With no press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Yellen will not be able to elaborate on the FOMC's rationale."

Earlier today, we learned that GDP growth decelerated to just 0.1% in Q1.

Of course, GDP reports are backwards looking. And the Fed will continue to focus on the more up-to-date measure of jobs and inflation.

"Assuming continued recovery in the labor market, and modest though building price pressures, the "appropriate" degree of policy accommodation at some point will become a "lessened" degree of accommodation," noted Credit Suisse's Dana Saporta. "The markets and the Fed may not agree on the timing of that transition, however."

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