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Here comes the ECB ...

Jul 21, 2016, 16:15 IST

Reuters/Francois Lenoir

The European Central Bank is set to leave monetary policy unchanged on Thursday afternoon, when the Bank announces the outcome of the first meeting of its governing council since Britain voted to leave the European Union, at 1:45 p.m. CET (12:45 p.m. BST; 7:45 a.m. ET).

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As it stands, the ECB's benchmark deposit sits at 0.4%, while its refinancing rate is at 0%.

It would be an enormous shock if either of those rates changed on Thursday, but markets in Europe and across the world will be waiting with bated breath to hear what ECB president Mario Draghi says when he answers questions from journalists later this afternoon.

Draghi will speak in Frankfurt at 2:30 p.m. CET (1:30 p.m. BST; 8:30 a.m. ET) and his remarks will be the main focus for European investors and policymakers. As always Draghi will comment on the considerations underlying the council's decisions, but what is likely to be most keenly watched are his comments on the economic impact of Brexit on the eurozone. Markets will also be looking to see what Draghi says about the ongoing banking crisis in Italy.

There are widespread fears that Britain's vote to leave the EU will provide a drag on the already fragile recovery of the Eurozone, and it is expected that as a result, the ECB may cut growth forecasts at today's meeting. Draghi and governing council vice president Vitor Constâncio should also provide some idea of how the ECB will try to mitigate any economic shocks provided to the eurozone by the Brexit vote. That could include hints about further stimulus in the form of another rate cut, or extra quantitative easing, and when that stimulus might come.

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Commenting on the upcoming meeting, Ana Thaker, a market economist with Phillip Capital, said:

"Much like the Bank of England, the ECB is likely to wait for post-Brexit data to be released before making any significant policy decisions with inflation, production and employment data crucial. Draghi will want to reassure markets that the bank remains in a stable position to provide the necessary assistance to markets and are ready to act when required. Whilst markets have previously believed and taken comfort in Draghi's words, it is increasingly apparent that the ECB is running out of policy measures to tackle stagnant growth in the area; it will be interesting to see if they keep faith in him today.

Some members of the ECB have attempted to take the spotlight off of July's meeting, with Luis Linde saying that the bank will not give an assessment of the economy until September, allowing for two months' worth of post-Brexit data to be assessed."

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