Here comes the Bank of Mexico...
Most economists forecast that the Banxico, as the bank is usually referred to, will once again hike rates.
This time around, most expect a 50 basis point hike up to 6.25%, according to the Bloomberg consensus. However, some observers expect just a 25 basis point increase.
Notably, this latest rate decision comes amid a slight recovery in the peso. The beleaguered Mexican currency is up by about 7% since the day before US President Donald Trump's inauguration.
"We expect a relatively dovish statement highlighting the recent [peso] recovery, that the increase in inflation is in large part due to large and persistent supply shocks ([peso] depreciation and higher energy prices) which are mostly a change in relative prices rather than a generalized increase, and the uncertainty that remains regarding policies that the Trump administration can take regarding domestic US policies that may not be neutral for Mexico and regarding US-Mexico relations," Carlos Capistran, Canada and Mexico economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note to clients earlier this week. Capistran is among those who expect a 25 basis point hike.
Banxico raised rates a couple of times since Trump's election in November. The bank hiked by 50 basis points at its November meeting, noting that the US election made the global economy "more complex." And then it hiked again by another 50 basis points in December, which was a more aggressive move than most had been expecting.
Both decisions followed a tumultuous autumn for the Mexican peso, which ended up being one of the big market casualties of the 2016 election.
"Banxico has changed its main message to one where rather than been preventive with respect to inflation, as in 2016, it will now be reactive," added Capistran in his note.
The Mexican peso is up by 0.2% at 20.4280 per dollar as of 10:51 a.m. ET.
