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Here comes the Bank of England...

Will Martin   

Here comes the Bank of England...

It's Bank of England day, meaning that at 12:00 p.m. BST (7:00 a.m. ET) we'll get the bank's latest decision on interest rates, as well as hearing the Monetary Policy Committee's thoughts on the state of the British economy.

We'll also get the bank's quarterly Inflation Report, detailing its thoughts on Britain's inflationary climate.

Unless something miraculous happens, rates will remain at 0.5%, where they have been on hold since March 2009. It's now stood at 0.5% for a record 85 months.

All nine members of the bank's Monetary Policy Committee are expected to vote to hold for a fourth straight month, although there is some market speculation that certain MPC members are considering voting for a cut.

In February, the MPC's sole hawk Ian McCafferty, who had previously voted for a rise to 0.75%, changed his position and voted to hold rates.

General market consensus has been pricing the next interest rate hike as far out as 2020, with some analysts even expecting a cut before the next hike.

However what will be most interesting for market watchers is the tone of the minutes and Inflation Report, as well as Governor Mark Carney when he speaks at 12:45 p.m. BST (7:45 a.m. ET).

Last month, the bank cited a potential "softening of growth" in early 2016 and continued subdued inflation in the UK, as well as treading carefully in advance of June's EU referendum as key reasons for the hold.

Here's the key quote from the MPC's minutes in April:

Returning inflation to the 2% target requires balancing the potentially lessening drag from external factors against expected gradual increases in domestic cost growth. Fully offsetting that drag over the short run would, in the MPC's judgement, involve too rapid an acceleration in domestic costs, one that would risk being excessive and would lead to undesirable volatility in output and employment. Given these considerations, the MPC intends to set monetary policy to ensure that growth is sufficient to return inflation to the target in around two years and keep it there in the absence of further shocks.

Despite inflation starting to grow - CPI hit 0.5% at the last reading - Carney and the BoE are likely to continue with their dovish tone given the state of GDP growth, which slowed to 0.4% in Q1 2016, and the upcoming Brexit referendum, which has effectively put the British economy into a holding pattern.

Carney has been pretty unequivocal in his belief that Brexit risks are "the biggest risks facing the UK economy," in recent weeks. That has led to criticisms from some Brexit backers, including Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who accused the governor of making "speculative pro-EU comments" that are "beneath the dignity of the BOE."

Along with the interest rate decision and inflation report, the Bank is expected to keep its Asset Purchase Facility at £375 billion ($542 billion).

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