HERE COMES RETAIL SALES...

The headline reading is forecast at 0.4% month-over-month, down from 1.2%. Ex-autos, expectations are for a 0.6% gain, down from 0.7%. Ex-autos and gas, 0.5%, down from 1.0%.

We just saw that small business optimism jumped to 95.2 from 93.4 in March. "The gain is modest but it is still the best reading post-recession. The main contributor to the improved Index came from expected business conditions. Small business owners are a bit more optimistic in this area but still 9 percent more owners expect business conditions to deteriorate than improve."

Let's see if it holds up.