HERE COMES Q2 GDP...
Expectations are for GDP to grow 3% annualized in the second quarter. The latest estimate from the BEA for the first quarter showed that the economy contracted at a rate of 2.9%.
BI's Rob Wile noted that among the big names expecting GDP to come in between 2.9% and 3.1% are Citi, Barclays, Nomura, UBS, and Goldman Sachs.
Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna, however, expects the reading to ome in at 4.2%. LaVorgna's prediction, however, comes with a caveat: he expects Q1 GDP to be revised lower.
"Unless Q1 GDP is revised up, Q1 productivity is poised to be revised significantly lower, thereby increasing the probability of a Q2 productivity snapback," LaVorgna wrote.
In a note to clients ahead of this week, Aneta Markowska and her team at Societe Generale said they expect Q2 GDP to come in at 3.2%, writing that: "Almost the entire markdown to real GDP growth from -1.0% to -2.9% contained in the government's final pass at Q1 was attributable to a sharp downward revision to consumer spending on health care. As we have pointed out previously, violent swings in hospital outlays, in particular, are often reversed in the following period, hinting that there could ultimately be an upside surprise on Q2 real GDP growth to be found in the next QSS."
Noted economist and market watcher Gary Shilling, however, expects that Wall Street economists expecting 3% or better growth in Q2 are likely to be disappointed.