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Here Comes Personal Income And Spending...

Sam Ro   

Here Comes Personal Income And Spending...

woman girl shopping zara retail

REUTERS/Miguel Vidal

At 8:30 a.m., we'll get the April reading of personal income and spending.

Economists estimate income climbed 0.3% and spending increased by 0.2% in April.

Core PCE, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, is estimated to have increased by 0.2% month-over-month in April or 1.4% year-over-year.

Here's a preview from UBS's Kevin Cummins:

In April, payroll growth picked up but hours worked and average hourly earnings were unchanged, and we forecast a slight slowing in income growth. Consumption also appears to have slowed: the swing from strength in March retail sales to weakness in April sales was probably exaggerated but we also believe utilities usage fell as spring arrived.

Despite the softness in April consumption alone, our forecasts are consistent with real consumer spending beginning Q2 up at about a 3% annual rate. Even a lackluster April is consistent with a high level relative to the Q1 average because of spending strength late in Q1.

Price measures are likely to continue showing re- acceleration after last year's lull. We estimate 0.2% m/m increases in both headline and core inflation, although core could easily print as a "high" 0.1%.

More noticeably, headline PCE prices are forecast at 1.6% y/y, the fastest pace since the end of 2012, and core PCE prices are forecast at 1.4% y/y, almost fully reversing the slowing of the past year. The three months through April are likely to be reported at about a 1.7% annual rate.

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