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Here Comes Personal Income And Spending...

May 30, 2014, 17:37 IST

REUTERS/Miguel Vidal

At 8:30 a.m., we'll get the April reading of personal income and spending.

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Economists estimate income climbed 0.3% and spending increased by 0.2% in April.

Core PCE, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, is estimated to have increased by 0.2% month-over-month in April or 1.4% year-over-year.

Here's a preview from UBS's Kevin Cummins:

In April, payroll growth picked up but hours worked and average hourly earnings were unchanged, and we forecast a slight slowing in income growth. Consumption also appears to have slowed: the swing from strength in March retail sales to weakness in April sales was probably exaggerated but we also believe utilities usage fell as spring arrived.

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Despite the softness in April consumption alone, our forecasts are consistent with real consumer spending beginning Q2 up at about a 3% annual rate. Even a lackluster April is consistent with a high level relative to the Q1 average because of spending strength late in Q1.

Price measures are likely to continue showing re- acceleration after last year's lull. We estimate 0.2% m/m increases in both headline and core inflation, although core could easily print as a "high" 0.1%.

More noticeably, headline PCE prices are forecast at 1.6% y/y, the fastest pace since the end of 2012, and core PCE prices are forecast at 1.4% y/y, almost fully reversing the slowing of the past year. The three months through April are likely to be reported at about a 1.7% annual rate.

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