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Here comes inflation ...

Mar 24, 2015, 17:33 IST

The February report on consumer prices is set for release at 8:30 am ET.

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Expectations are for the consumer price index to rise 0.2% compared to the prior month and fall 0.1% compared to the prior year.

In January, headline CPI declined 0.1% against the same month last year, the first year-on-year decline since October 2009.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile cost of food and energy, prices are expected to rise 0.1% over last month and 1.7% over the prior year.

In a note to clients ahead of the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro wrote that, "It's probably too soon to start looking for second round effects from the drop in gasoline prices in the core CPI. History suggests quite strongly that sharp declines in energy prices feed into the core by depressing the costs of production, distribution and service delivery, but the lags are quite long, a year or more."

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Shepherdson expects prices to rise 0.4% on a headline basis and increase 0.1% on a "core" basis, but sees a decline in airfare going forward weighing on inflation.

We'll be back with the live numbers when they hit.

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