Gene J. Puskar/AP
A group of coal miners listen to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt during his visit to Consol Pennsylvania Coal Company's Harvey Mine in Sycamore, Pa., Thursday, April 13, 2017.
The Department of Commerce is set to release its advance reading of gross domestic product in the first quarter at 8:30 a.m. ET.Economists forecast that GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1%, according to Bloomberg.
That would represent a slowdown from the fourth quarter when the economy grew by 2.1%, per the third revision. However, it's roughly in line with the sluggishness seen every first quarter since 2010 partly due to seasonal adjustment issues that have not yet been resolved.
The expected lull can also be attributed to weaker consumer spending in the first three months of the year, according to data on retail sales and personal outlays that have already been released. Auto sales fell every month from January through March. Economists have also pointed to delayed tax returns as one reason why spending dropped.
"This lull in growth should be short lived as real GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2.5% this quarter and then rise to 3.5% in Q3 and 4.0% in Q4," said Joseph LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank's chief US economist, in a preview.
These forecasts, he added, assume that the economy will get some fiscal stimulus in the coming months. But as the healthcare bill showed, the timing of policy reform is uncertain. President Donald Trump has promised to return the economy to 3% growth, although the low rate of worker productivity has many economists doubtful that this is possible right now.
This GDP report is the first major scorecard of the economy since Trump took office 99 days ago.
"Wait till you see the growth," Trump said on Thursday. "The growth is going to pay for" the tax cuts unveiled on Wednesday, he added.