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Here comes GDP ...

Mar 28, 2018, 17:57 IST

Keisha Hardman cuts and sews U.S. flags at Valley Forge's manufacturing facility in Lane, South Carolina June 23, 2015.Brian Snyder/Reuters

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The Commerce Department will release its third estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The second estimate of the value of everything produced in the US was revised to 2.5% from 2.6%, mainly because business inventories removed more from growth than was previously estimated. Economists now expect that with more complete data, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will report a 2.7% growth rate, according to Bloomberg.

Consumer spending, the biggest contributor to the economy, was unrevised at a 3.8% growth rate in the second estimate.

The release on Wednesday will include more complete data and allow us to tally the economy's growth rate for the year 2017.

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Focus is now on the current quarter, as several forecasters have downgraded their estimates through the months. For example, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker plunged from a 5.4% estimate in January to 1.8% as of Wednesday.

Economists are also watching for the impact of so-called residual seasonality - a glitch in how the BEA adjusts for unique trends in the first quarter such as holiday spending - that tends to undercut growth in early estimates.

More to come ...

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