HERE COMES FOMC MINUTES...

REUTERS/Mary F. CalvertFederal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (C) arrives to testify before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on "Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy." at the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, February 11, 2014.

Heads up! We are minutes away from the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting on monetary policy, due out at 2 PM ET.

No one expects much new information to be revealed in this release, given that Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen delivered a testimony before Congress after that meeting, offering some insight into the Committee's view of recent developments in the economy in financial markets.

Nonetheless, Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX strategy at Citi, lays out in a note to clients a few items market participants will be paying attention to:

Tapering faster or slower? -- we have heard some FOMC voices arguing for quicker tapering, so there is room for a 'some 9or a few) members advocated a more rapid tapering pace'. The bigger surprise would be if there was a constituency to slow it down, maybe expressing concern that EM issues could spillback into the US, that housing is being materially affected or that hot air from the tapering discussion is the cause of weather disruptions. If there is surprise concentrated dovishness, we would see additional USD pressures.

US economy, whither or weather? -- In her testimony Janet Yellen leaned more to the weather than an underlying slowdown. It will be off interest whether there is unanimity or whether some members are beginning to see underlying weakness. Again more risk on the USD negative side than on the positive side.

Forward guidance -- there are constituencies both for strengthening forward guidance and doing away with it. The interesting part would be proposals for strengthening the commitment to low rates and making them more concrete. In recent commentary Fed officials have presented forward guidance as operating on the expected rate of path in the next 4-5 years. It would be a dovish surprise if they began to see long-term yields as being in the forward guidance purview, as they were midyear in 2013.

Inflation -- this is the key upside rates and USD risk. So far there has not been any mention of inflation risk, but Beige Book is beginning to see signs of labor market tightening and there is a legitimate debate on how strong the evidence is for a lot of labor market slack. If this debate heats up, the surprise would be on the hawkish side.

We will have the full text of the minutes LIVE at 2 PM ET. Click here to refresh for the latest updates »