Here Comes Case-Shiller Home Prices...
As our Sam Ro noted, analysts like Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach see housing as arguably the main component the Fed is looking at while it decides where to take monetary policy:
"[A] factor that may cause the Fed to wait beyond the October meeting is that measures of home price appreciation (HPA) such as the S&P/Case-Shiller index shown in Exhibit 5 come out with a one-quarter lag - meaning that during the week of September 23 the data will reflect HPA for the month of July," wrote Hornbach in a note to clients on Friday. "The Fed will also get S&P/Case-Shiller home prices for August on the first day of the October 29-30 FOMC meeting. While August was the first full month after most of the mortgage rate increases had occurred, the Fed may want to see more data, given uncertain lags."
Our Mamta Badkar also recently explained why new home price value growth is going to slow thanks to oversupply and demographics.