Alan Diaz/AP
- All Boeing 737 Max 8's have been grounded by US officials after two deadly crashes.
- The plane only makes up a small percentage of American air travel, but is already causing flight cancellations around the country.
- For competing airlines who fly the same routes with unaffected planes, the grounding could be good news.
The Boeing 737 Max 8, a plane now grounded in most of the world including the US following two deadly crashes in five months, doesn't account for much of the US air traffic, but it could still be good news for carriers looking to snap up market share from their competitors' affected routes.
Spirit is most likely to benefit, as well as Hawaiian, American, and Alaskan, according to calculations by Joseph DeNardi, an analyst at Stifel.
Southwest, American, and United fly the plane in the US, and the forced grounding has already affected some of their routes. Of the competitors that fly the same route but on un-affected planes, Spirit has the most overlap. That's according to calculations by Joseph DeNardi, an analyst at Sitfel, using Available Seat Miles, or ASMs, a key metric watched by airline investors and analysts.
Stifel
"The data suggests that Southwest's deployment of the MAX is broad and not concentrated in any particular market which results in Spirit having the most overlap with MAX capacity," DeNardi said in a note to clients Thursday. "As a result, we see SAVE as most likely to gain share as a result of what is likely to be less than planned capacity from LUV for as long as the grounding persists."
Southwest only launched flights to Hawaii this month. And while the low-cost carrier isn't running that route with 737 Max 8's right now, the long-distance version of Southwest's preferred plane appears to be ripe for the over-ocean route.
"We see Hawaiian as a beneficiary due to (1) likely less capacity from United's 737 MAXs into Hawaii and (2) a delay in additional growth from Southwest," DeNardi said. "Beyond Spirit and Hawaiian, American and Alaska should benefit due to (1) less capacity in Dallas which is a primary market for the MAX helping American's growth later this year into DFW and (2) Alaska benefiting from less capacity into Hawaii."
More on the Boeing 737 Max grounding:
- Boeing could get hit with a subpoena over its 2 deadly 737 Max 8 crashes
- Everything we know about Ethiopian Airlines' deadly crash of a Boeing 737 Max 8, the second disaster involving the plane in 5 months
- Norwegian Air reportedly tells Boeing to 'take this bill' after grounding its fleet of 18 Boeing 737 Max planes
- This map shows all the countries to ban the Boeing 737 Max 8, and where airlines have grounded their fleets, after Ethiopian Airlines crash that killed 157
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- Boeing's CEO reportedly asked President Trump not to ground the company's plane that has crashed twice in 5 months
- Pilots complained to authorities about issues with the Boeing 737 Max for months before the deadly Ethiopian Airlines crash
- The US government says it has no reason to ground the Boeing 737 MAX that has crashed twice since October
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- These are the victims of the Boeing 737 Max 8 crash in Ethiopia
- The family of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 captain speaks out after crash that killed 157 people
- A Georgetown University law student who reportedly expressed a fear of flying is among the 157 dead in the Ethiopian Airlines crash
- The black box from the crashed Ethiopian Airlines flight has been found
- An Ethiopian Airlines passenger said he missed the crashed flight by 2 minutes: 'I'm grateful to be alive'
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