Here are Nate Silver's Final Four picks
Silver gives Kentucky a 41% chance to win the tournament. No other team has better than a 11% chance.
To give you an idea of how big a favorite Kentucky is, last year's favorite to win the tournament (Florida) had a 14% chance of winning it all in Silver's model.
Here are the favorites to make the Final Four according to Silver's odds (check out his full numbers here):
- Kentucky (#1 seed, midwest) - 72% chance to make Final Four
- Arizona (#2 seed, west) - 46% chance
- Villanova (#1 seed, east) - 45% chance
- Duke (#1 seed, south) - 32% chance
Unlike last year, when Silver's model had two #4 seeds as favorites to make the Final Four, he's going pretty much all chalk here. The only region that goes against seeds is the west, where Silver has Arizona as the favorite over #1 seed Wisconsin.
Ken Pomeroy, the most respected statistics-centric college basketball commentator out there, also likes Arizona. His numbers have UofA as the second-best team in the entire tournament behind Kentucky.
The bracket (click to enlarge, via CBS):
Here are the Vegas odds to win it all. Kentucky is the huge favorite:
- Kentucky, 1/1
- Duke, 13/2
- Wisconsin, 13/2
- Villanova, 8/1
- Arizona, 12/1
- Virginia, 17/1
- Gonzaga, 22/1
- North Carolina, 25/1
- Iowa State, 35/1
- Baylor, 40/1
- Kansas, 40/1
- Notre Dame, 50/1
- Utah, 55/1
- Maryland, 60/1
- Michigan State, 60/1
- Oklahoma, 60/1
- SMU, 60/1
The tournament starts on Thursday.