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Here Are Five Reasons Why Stock Market Bulls Should Be Psyched About 2015

Dec 3, 2014, 00:58 IST

Wall Street's predictions for 2015 have been rolling in over the last few weeks.

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Overall, all strategists highlighted by Business Insider expect the market to eke out gains in 2015, but only a couple of strategists expect gains to be near the roughly 11% rally the S&P 500 has enjoyed so far this year.

However, NYSE floor governor Rich Barry on Tuesday gave us a look at what some traders on the floor are seeing when looking forward to 2015.

And the short answer: big gains.

Barry writes that, "For hints and clues [about 2015], a few seasoned veteran floor-denizens dusted off their editions of the Stock Traders Almanac (for historical patterns)... Hold on to your helmets, because you might be surprised by some of their findings."

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What these traders found is that there are five big reasons why stock market bulls should be psyched about 2015:

  1. 2015 will mark, by far, the best year of the 4-year Presidential cycle, and especially in a President's second term. Since 1939, the Dow has averaged a 16% gain, while the S&P 500 is up 16.3%, on average, in these years.
  2. According to the Almanac, years ending in '5' have only had one down year in the last 13 decades. The average gain is 28.3% for the Dow and 25.3% for the S&P.
  3. In addition, for the current election cycle, the current quarter and the first 2 quarters of next year have produced average gains of 21% for the Dow and S&P.
  4. In the last 84 years there have only been 3 times where equity markets were up double digits 3 years in a row (2014 looks like the third-straight). In each of those occurrences, the 4th year was up an average of 23.1%.
  5. Pre-Presidential Election years have seen ZERO losers in 76 years.

So there's that.

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