"Bond God"
As part of the luncheon, Gundlach presents his market views. Josh Brown, author of the popular financial blog The Reformed Broker, is tweeting Gundlach's presentation live.
Gundlach has a lot of interesting things to say today. One thing he recommended was shorting
Below are Brown's tweets re-capping the presentation.
Gundlach: Those predicting a collapse for the bond market are "dead wrong"
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Gundlach: Forget Fed Minutes, QE is not stopping anytime soon, talk is just talk. Yellen's down to do this til 2025.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
"There's a better chance Bernanke buys every Treasury bond in existence before he ever sells a single one" -ohhh sh*t.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
The message is that ZIRP and QE are a way of life now, find ways to cope and profit.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
"Japan is important to watch, it's a pace car for stock market peaks, weird policy responses and currency debasement." Lololol
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
"The annual $1 trillion budget deficit is propping up the economy, the only thing abetting this is QE" - hence, it is indispensable.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Gundlach: Bond indexing has spoiled investors but now it's over. Treasurys make up the largest index weight and yield the least now.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Gundlach: "Emerging market corporate debt is THE best area of investment grade fixed income right now"
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
"I think the Yen will go to 200 vs the dollar over time." Ohmygod
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Gundlach agrees with John Hussman that profit margins will be mean reverting shortly. This won't hurt corporate bonds necessarily.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
On housing: NY is not America. "Paying a hundred million for a New York apartment is kind of like a jerk tax" - big laugh line
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
On dividend stocks - you cannot compare them to bonds without risk-adjustment, volatility is night and day.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
'Private equity and hedge funds are NOT "alternative asset classes" - they are equities in drag.'
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Question on preferred stocks - first time I've ever heard Jeff admits he knows nothing about something. He punts.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Gundlach on his short AAPL / long nay gas trade: "It was better than you thought it was - never went negative a single day"
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
NEW GUNDLACH SHORT IDEA: CHIPOTLE. "Gourmet Burito is an oxymoron". Was saving it for Ira Sohn but couldn't resist mentioning. $CMG
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Gundlach on when does he have too much AUM in Total Return: In 2009 we could have managed a trillion, right now probably not even $75 bil.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Takes a dig at PIMCO but not by name re: shadow financial markets, cant be "total return" and so big that you have counterparty risk.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Gundlach mentions John Paulson and Bill Miller specifically as examples of managers getting too big to succeed.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
Jeff is worried about muni market - believes that tax benefit for ultra high net worth will be stripped away someday.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013
"Please don't tell me the Fed can't create inflation if it tried. I think a check for $1 million to every American would get it done." LOL
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) April 11, 2013