Government might present 'run-of-the-mill Budget, says the Normura report

Government is likely to present a "run-of-the-mill" budget with an fiscal slippage to 3.7 per cent of the GDP in the next fiscal from an earlier target of 3.5 per cent, a Nomura report says.

According to the Japanese financial services major, the government is likely to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP in the current financial year, but in 2016-17 it might slip to 3.7 per cent as against an earlier target of 3.5 per cent.

The increase in the wages and pensions burden owing to the Seventh Pay Commission and the One Rank One Pension scheme will be the main reasons for the slippage, it said.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present the Budget 2016-17 on February 29 outlining the deficit projection for the fiscal.

In the Budget for 2015-16, Jaitley had stretched the fiscal deficit target to 3.9 per cent from the earlier 3.6 per cent to address growth concerns. As per the roadmap, deficit is to be brought down to 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2016-17, from 3.9 per cent in 2015-16.

International rating agencies have threatened to downgrade the country's sovereign rating if the government neglects fiscal math.
"Overall, we think the budget will be a tightrope walk. We do not expect a 'gamechanger', but rather a 'run-of-the-mill' budget," the research note added.

On Reserve Bank's monetary policy stance, Nomura said that despite the fiscal slippage, the apex bank is expected to deliver a 25 bps repo rate cut at its April policy meeting.

Meanwhile, RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on February 2 left the key interest rate unchanged citing inflation risks and growth concerns, while pegging further easing of monetary policy on government's budget proposals.

Image credit: Indiatimes