There's a ton of economic data coming. Here's a quick preview via BI's Monday Scouting Report newsletter:
- Consumer Price Index (Thurs): Economists estimate CPI climbed 0.3% month-over-month in April and 2.0% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is estimated to have increased by 0.1% and 1.7% respectively. "We expect higher farm prices and seasonally adjusted gas prices to prop up headline CPI in April," said Nomura economists.
- Empire State Manufacturing (Thurs): Economists estimate this regional activity index jumped to 6.0 in May from 1.29 in April. "While the new orders index has printed in contractionary territory in four of the past six months, the headline index has averaged 4.5 over that time, and we expect a pickup in activity in the coming months, in line with overall GDP growth," said Barclays economists who forecast a 4.0 level.
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thurs): Economists estimate jobless claims climbed to 320,000 from 319,000 a week ago. "Initial claims probably rose by 11,000, marking another week of wild swings," predicted Citi's Peter D'Antonio. "If correct, the four-week moving average rose to the highest level in two months amid the recent volatility. Separately, continuing claims fell again, and the insured rate held at a cycle low of 2% for three of the past four weeks."
- Industrial Production (Thurs): Economists estimate production saw 0.0% growth in April as capacity utilization slipped to 79.1% from 79.2% in March. "Other manufacturing indicators including the ISM manufacturing survey and regional purchasing managers' surveys support further gains in manufacturing output," said Wells Fargo's John Silvia who expects a 0.3% increases. "However, factory production hours worked, also a leading indicator for manufacturing output, slowed in April. Taking cues from gains in oil, natural gas and coal, mining production rose on the month and should continue to show improvement. On the other hand, although utilities output rose in March, strength was due to the unseasonably cold winter weather. With weather conditions normalizing, utilities will likely show weakness in April."
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Thurs): Economists estimate the Philly Fed index slipped to 14.1 in May from 16.6 in April, but up from 9.0 in March. "It appears the April reading for the Philadelphia Fed headline index may have been a bit overdone-new orders and employment indices in the April survey were not as strong as the headline index-and we forecast a slight pullback in early May," said UBS's Sam Coffin who forecasts a 15.0 print.
- NAHB Housing Market Index (Thurs): Economists estimated this homebuilder sentiment index climbed to 49 in May from 47 in April. "The NAHB index tumbled in February by 10 points to 46 and has remained stuck below the 50 breakeven since," noted Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists. "Buyer traffic, in particular, has remained sluggish, which is not a good sign for housing demand at the start of the spring selling season. We expect a modest improvement in this measure, but not a sharp move higher."