FORECAST: A Quarter Of Consumers' Payment Card Transactions Will Be Card-Not-Present By 2018

U.S. card-not-present transactions made using general purpose payment cards will continue growing at a healthy clip, according to BI Intelligence estimates.

Card-not-present transactions include e-commerce and mobile payment transactions, online bill pay, over-the-phone transactions, and the like - basically any card-based transaction made without presenting a physical card to a merchant.

• Total general purpose payment card transactions, including credit, debit, and prepaid card-present and card-not-present transactions, will increase at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%, from 80 billion in 2013 to 108 billion in 2018.
• Card-not-present transactions will grow at more than double that rate, at a CAGR of 15%, from 13.6 billion transactions in 2013 to 27.3 billion in 2018.
• Card-present transactions will grow much more slowly at a CAGR of 4%, from 66 billion in 2013 to 80.7 billion in 2018.
• Card-not-present transactions will account for a quarter of general purpose payment card transactions by 2018, up from 17% in 2013.

We arrived at our forecast based on data from the Federal Reserve, past growth trends, and our close tracking of the card payments industry.

This forecast is part of BI Intelligence's ongoing in-depth coverage of the payments industry. For full access to all BI Intelligence's forecasts, estimates, and analysis, sign up for a free trial.

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