For The Next 20 Days, Everyone In Europe Will Be Watching This Chart

On February 24-25, Italy goes to the polls to elect its new parliament.

The big fears is that Berlusconi might do better than expected, increasing the risk of an ungovernable country.

This concern helped contribute to a massive walloping in the Italian stock market today. It was down 4.5%.

For the next 20 days, everyone will be watching this chart to see if the blue line (Berlusconi) keeps trending up, and if the red line (the left coalition) keeps going down. Also watch the maroon line. That's the party of populist comedian Beppe Grillo. His rise would complicate things further.