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  4. The coronavirus outbreak is causing a historic spike in US layoffs. Here's what 4 Wall Street experts are saying - and how much worse they think it can get.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing a historic spike in US layoffs. Here's what 4 Wall Street experts are saying - and how much worse they think it can get.

Carmen Reinicke   

The coronavirus outbreak is causing a historic spike in US layoffs. Here's what 4 Wall Street experts are saying - and how much worse they think it can get.

unemployment
  • US jobless claims increased by 70,000 to 281,000 for the week ending March 14, exceeding economist estimates for a 220,000 uptick, according to data released Thursday.
  • In just a week's time, jobless claims could explode to a record 2.25 million, the largest increase in initial jobless claims and the highest level on record, according to Goldman Sachs.
  • Here's what four experts are saying about jobs data, and what could be on the horizon.
  • Read more on Business Insider.

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold around the US, data is starting to show the negative impact on the economy.

Thursday US jobless claims numbers came in much higher than expected, increasing by 70,000 to 281,000 for the week ending March 14, exceeding economist estimates for a 220,000 gain.

In just a week's time, jobless claims could explode to a record 2.25 million, the largest increase in initial jobless claims and the highest level on record, according to Goldman Sachs' analysis of state-level anecdotes. The Goldman forecast is more than three times the previous record of 695,000 in 1982.

"It's going to get a whole lot worse," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate, told Business Insider in an interview. This week's jobless claims were just "the tip of the iceberg," he said.

Read more: The coronavirus crash has pushed a group of quality companies to the cusp of disaster - and investors must now confront the 3 most dangerous letters in markets

Going forward, many economists will be watching jobs data for signs of the severity of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. So far, schools, restaurants, and many other businesses have been shuttered across the US. In addition, many employees are working from home and practicing social distancing to curb the spread of the virus.

"We never imagined we'd write anything like this," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. "The shock will be so great that it will leave policymakers with no choice but to pass much more stimulus than is currently under discussion."

The White House is working with Congress to solidify the details of what could be a more than $1 trillion stimulus package to prop up the US economy amid the crisis. Still, some experts worry that the stimulus package won't be enough - in a Thursday interview with CNBC, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said the fiscal stimulus should be in the range of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion at a minimum, depending on the form that relief takes.

Here's what four experts had to say about the jobs data, and what could be on the horizon.



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