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The 5 upcoming movies most at risk at the box office due to the coronavirus
The 5 upcoming movies most at risk at the box office due to the coronavirus
Travis ClarkMar 10, 2020, 02:22 IST
UniversalVin Diesel in "F9"
Some upcoming Hollywood movies with global appeal could be affected by the coronavirus at the box office, especially if China's theaters remain closed.
They include Disney's "Mulan" remake, Marvel's "Black Widow," and "F9."
Some Hollywood movies have already been impacted by the coronavirus outbreak and more are likely to face similar challenges.
The James Bond movie "No Time to Die's" release date was pushed back from April to November and the seventh "Mission: Impossible" movie's production was halted in Italy amid coronavirus concerns.
But "No Time to Die" is the only major Hollywood release to be delayed so far and there are upcoming movies that could be dramatically affected at the global box office if they stick with their current release dates.
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China's 70,000 movie theaters have been closed since January because of the coronavirus. The world's second-largest theatrical industry usually provides a major boost for Hollywood blockbusters. But it's unclear when theaters will reopen.
"The longer this tragic situation continues, the greater the impact will be on all of the studios, their movies, and indeed all of the arts in China," Paul Dergarabedian, the Comscore senior media analyst, told Business Insider. "Of course, there will still be a natural hesitation to avoid public spaces even when the situation is contained, so release dates for the 2020 overall movie slate in China could change dramatically."
Below are five upcoming movies with global appeal that could face challenges at the box office, especially if China's theaters remain closed for the foreseeable future:
The superhero movie "Bloodshot" comes to theaters on Friday, but with theaters still closed in China, what could have been a major part of the movie's global box office will not be a factor for the time being.
The movie's star, Vin Diesel, is a big draw in China. His "Fast and Furious" movies are huge there, but even his 2017 action sequel, "XXX: The Return of Xander Cage," earned an impressive $164 million in the region compared to its poor $45 million gross in the US. For comparison, "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" only made $20.5 million in China.
"Mulan"
Disney's live-action "Mulan" remake hits theaters on March 27 in the US and other territories, but its release was not confirmed by China before the country's 70,000 movie theaters closed due to coronavirus concerns.
Shawn Robbins, the Boxoffice.com chief analyst, told Business Insider that "Mulan" is "tailor-made for a big China release" and that the region could be its biggest market "given the film's cultural roots and Disney's own success with previous films there."
Boxoffice.com is projecting "Mulan" to open with $65 million in the US, but with a hefty $200 million budget, a delayed China release could be difficult to bounce back from.
Paul Dergarabedian called the situation "unprecedented" and that the movie's postponement in China "will, at least in the short term, have an unavoidable negative impact on the film's overall global performance."
"Black Widow"
Marvel Cinematic Universe movies are huge draws in China. Most recently, "Captain Marvel" grossed $154 million there. "Spider-Man: Far From Home" "Avengers: Endgame" was the region's highest-grossing Hollywood movie ever with $614 million. And "Spider-Man: Far From Home" grossed just shy of $200 million in China.
So the global box office of "Black Widow" could take a hit as it likely won't be coming to China any time soon. Fortunately, the movie's domestic box-office prospects are looking positive. Boxoffice.com is projecting it to make $115 million when it opens in the US on May 1.
"F9"
Vin Diesel has another major movie coming out soon with "F9," the ninth movie in the "Fast and Furious" series.
The last two "Fast" entries, 2015's "Furious 7" and 2017's "The Fate of the Furious," both grossed over $1 billion worldwide and both earned nearly $400 million in China.
"F9" might have to rely on the franchise's global popularity for a boost at the box office. It opens on May 22 in the US and other markets. But even if theaters in China open within the next two months, it's unclear how willing audiences will be to head to the theater right away, or if "F9" would even still be released in the region at that time.
"Jungle Cruise"
Disney's "Jungle Cruise," based on the theme-park ride, doesn't arrive in US theaters until July 24 and it's unclear when the movie would hit China if theaters were to reopen around that time.
But if the movie's China release is drastically impacted by coronavirus concerns, it could be a huge blow, as star Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is a big draw for Chinese audiences.
Johnson has propelled would-be flops like "Rampage" and "Skyscraper" to global success, mostly because of his popularity in China. Both of those movies made more in China than they did in the US. With Disney's backing and Johnson's star power, "Jungle Cruise" could be a hit in China — eventually.
But it's worth noting that the ride's absence in Chinese culture could be an obstacle the movie will have to overcome. Shanghai Disneyland does not feature the Jungle Cruise ride.
