Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts
Aug 6, 2024, 12:40 IST
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started its three-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Mumbai on Tuesday. The meeting will conclude on Thursday, when the RBI will announce its decisions on the repo rate and other matters.
The repo rate, which has been maintained at 6.5 per cent since it was last increased in February 2023, is widely expected by experts to remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive bi-monthly policy review.
Experts highlight that inflation in India remains above the RBI's target range, making it unlikely that the central bank will implement policy cuts until inflation reaches the target of 4 per cent. However, the expert added that the RBI may consider rate cuts in the October meeting.
Banking expert Ashutosh Khajuria commented: "Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to hold the policy signalling Repo rate and wait for Consumer Price Inflation to decisively fall below 4 per cent, the target rate. For the present, the continuation of the current stance is widely expected. MPC in India may change the stance and rate action by the beginning of the second half of the year in their October meeting at the earliest."
The experts also noted that while core inflation has been contained and commodity prices, particularly metals, have dropped by 15-20 per cent from their 2024 peak, food inflation remains a concern and needs to be closely monitored to ensure stability in overall CPI numbers.
The Managing Director of a major bank, who preferred not to be named, told ANI: "During the last policy meeting we could see some voting in favour of a rate cut. At the same time, we could see The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on July 11 said it is too early to talk on the interest rate cut due to the uncertain economic environment and inflation remaining close to five per cent. Considering both, our expectation is that the rate cut cycle may start from the next meeting and no change in interest rates this time."
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had also emphasised in the last policy briefing that food inflation is still a concern and that the regulator is not in a hurry to make a decision on rate cuts.
A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also noted that Consumer Price Inflation in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent for the financial year 2024-25, except for the months of September and October.
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The repo rate, which has been maintained at 6.5 per cent since it was last increased in February 2023, is widely expected by experts to remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive bi-monthly policy review.
Experts highlight that inflation in India remains above the RBI's target range, making it unlikely that the central bank will implement policy cuts until inflation reaches the target of 4 per cent. However, the expert added that the RBI may consider rate cuts in the October meeting.
Banking expert Ashutosh Khajuria commented: "Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to hold the policy signalling Repo rate and wait for Consumer Price Inflation to decisively fall below 4 per cent, the target rate. For the present, the continuation of the current stance is widely expected. MPC in India may change the stance and rate action by the beginning of the second half of the year in their October meeting at the earliest."
The experts also noted that while core inflation has been contained and commodity prices, particularly metals, have dropped by 15-20 per cent from their 2024 peak, food inflation remains a concern and needs to be closely monitored to ensure stability in overall CPI numbers.
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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had also emphasised in the last policy briefing that food inflation is still a concern and that the regulator is not in a hurry to make a decision on rate cuts.
A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also noted that Consumer Price Inflation in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent for the financial year 2024-25, except for the months of September and October.