How the coronavirus has impacted Hollywood movies like the next James Bond and 'Mission: Impossible,' and what could happen next
- As the coronavirus spreads through various countries, Hollywood is already feeling the effects.
- The China premiere of the next James Bond movie, "No Time to Die," was canceled and production on the seventh "Mission: Impossible" installment was postponed because of coronavirus concerns.
- Disney's $200 million "Mulan" remake may not even be released in China, which one box-office expert said is likely its biggest theatrical market.
- It remains to be seen whether moviegoing in the US could be significantly impacted by the coronavirus, but it was already expected to be a down year compared to 2019.
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This story was originally published on Thursday, February 27, but has been updated to reflect AMC Theatres' comments on the coronavirus.
The coronavirus has already dealt a severe blow to China's theatrical market. The country's 70,000 theaters have been closed for more than a month, resulting in over $1 billion in lost revenue.
As the coronavirus - which has killed more than 2,800 people and infected 82,000 - spreads to various countries, Hollywood is starting to feel the effects.
The April premiere and tour for the next James Bond movie, "No Time to Die," has been canceled in China because of coronavirus fears.
It's unknown when China's theaters will reopen, but if "No Time to Die" doesn't get a China release, it won't be a dramatic loss. The last Bond film, 2015's "Spectre," grossed $83.5 million in China and more than $800 million worldwide. 2012's "Skyfall" earned $1 billion worldwide, with just $59 million of that coming from China. But if coronavirus concerns persist, more Hollywood movies could be damaged.
One of those movies is Disney's live-action "Mulan" remake, which is due in theaters in the US and other markets on March 27, though China had not confirmed a release date in the region before its theaters shut down.
Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst for Boxoffice.com, told Business Insider that China is likely the movie's biggest market. It could be a massive blow to its global box office if its China release is halted indefinitely, especially considering its hefty $200 million production budget.
"There's no doubt that Mulan has been tailor-made for a big China release," Robbins said.
Paul Dergarabedian, the Comscore senior media analyst, told Business Insider that even if the theaters open in time for the movie's release (which is becoming increasingly unlikely at this point), lingering concerns about the outbreak could still keep people away from cinemas.
"There will still be a natural hesitation to avoid public spaces even when the situation is contained, so release dates for the 2020 overall movie slate in China could change dramatically," Dergarabedian said.
Could moviegoing in the US face a similar situation this year? Coronavirus concerns haven't reached the heights they have in other regions and theater closures are, right now, not imminent. But Dergarabedian said we're in "uncharted territory."
"There are so many moving parts and implications, not just for movie theaters but for public spaces in general," he said. "The uncertainty is the one thing that is certain. At the end of the year, box-office numbers, particularly regarding China, are going to have an asterisk."
Adam Aron, the CEO of AMC Theatres (the largest theater chain in the world), said during an investor call on Thursday that the "economic impact on AMC from the coronavirus has been minimal." However, 22 of the 47 AMC theaters in Italy will be closed for a week "as a precaution" in cooperation with the local government, Aron said.
This year's box office was already expected to be down from last year, though, before the coronavirus outbreak. Disney set box-office records in 2019, but the market share will likely be more evenly distributed among studios in 2020.
And the coronavirus' impact could potentially be felt beyond 2020.
Production on the seventh "Mission: Impossible" movie, due in theaters next year, has been halted in Italy as the number of coronavirus cases has climbed above 200. It remains to be seen whether the movie's July 23, 2021 release date could be pushed or how other European productions could be impacted.
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- The movie business is taking a hit from the Wuhan coronavirus, as nearly 70,000 theaters close in China and Shanghai Disneyland shuts down