Exclusive data suggests Netflix was hurt by the launch of Disney Plus, but has rebounded in recent weeks
- Netflix subscriber cancellations seem to be slowing in the US, after spiking late last year when Disney Plus launched, according to data from subscription measurement and analytics firm Antenna that was shared with Business Insider.
- The pace of Netflix's US churn, or cancellations, fell in both February and March, the data showed.
- The improvement came as streaming-video viewership increased broadly among people spending more time at home, and Netflix released hits like docuseries "Tiger King," reality show "Love Is Blind," and the latest season of "Ozark."
- The reduction in Netflix's churn rate presents an opportunity for the streaming giant to solidify its standing as the staple among streaming services, as Quibi and NBC's Peacock launch in April, and HBO Max debuts in May.
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More US subscribers seem to be sticking with Netflix during the coronavirus pandemic.
Subscriber cancellations of the streaming-video service appear to be slowing in the US, after spiking late last year when Disney Plus launched and competition stiffened in the marketplace, according to new data from subscription measurement and analytics firm Antenna that was shared with Business Insider.
Antenna tracks churn and other metrics for subscription businesses by licensing anonymized data on consumer spending from third-party apps.
According to the data, the pace of US churn, or cancellations, at Netflix fell in both February and March to reach an estimated 4.2%.
Netflix's US churn previously spiked in November 2019, when Disney Plus launched. The pace of churn hit an estimated 4.9%, up from 2.3% a year earlier. It suggested some subscribers had ditched Netflix for Disney.
Netflix missed its own targets for subscriber growth in the US during that quarter.
The improvement in February and March brought Netflix's churn down, closer to pre-Disney Plus levels.
It comes as streaming-video viewership increases broadly among people who are spending more time at home.
Netflix also put out a steady stream of hits to keep viewers entertained during the months of February and March, including the docuseries "Tiger King," reality shows like "Love Is Blind" and the Brazilian version of "The Circle," and the latest season of "Ozark."
The reduction in Netflix's churn rate presents an opportunity for the streaming giant to solidify its standing as the staple among streaming services, as Quibi and NBC's Peacock launch in April, and HBO Max debuts in May.
Netflix declined to comment on this story.
Shares of Netflix hit on Monday a new 52-week high for the first time since March 3. The stock went as high as $395.88 during intraday trading, as of the time of this writing.
The Antenna data also found that, while churn at Netflix improved in March, the pace of cancellations at other streaming services including HBO, Showtime, and Starz, rose during the month.
Still, Netflix isn't immune to the threat of new competition. Netflix's US subscribers who were observed signing up for Disney Plus were consistently more likely to cancel their Netflix subscriptions than other Netflix subscribers, the data showed.
That was true of other streaming services as well. Those who signed up for Disney Plus were more likely to cancel HBO, Showtime, Starz, and Cinemax.
Hulu was one exception. Hulu subscribers who were observed signing up for Disney Plus were less likely to cancel their Hulu subscriptions, the data showed. Disney Plus is being offered in a bundle with Hulu and ESPN Plus for less than it would cost to subscribe to all three alone.
For more about how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting media, see our coverage on BI Prime:
- The winners and losers among 11 Disney businesses, as analysts slash the projected value of the media giant's parks and raise expectations for Disney Plus: Wells Fargo analysts are valuing Disney's businesses at 26% less than they were before the coronavirus outbreak, according to a report.
- 40 advertising execs who manage $90 billion in spending describe how they're shifting their 2020 budgets in a new report. Here are 4 key takeaways for the TV industry: Connected-TV platforms like Roku and Hulu are expected to see the biggest gains in TV advertising, and Disney is the best-positioned cable-network group.
- The key factors analysts are watching at 5 major media companies including Disney and Fox to help determine whether their stock will keep falling or rebound: Combined, Disney, Fox, ViacomCBS, Discovery, and AMC Networks lost $92 billion in market value since the last market high on February 19, largely thanks to Disney.
- Disney has closed its US parks 'until further notice' and risks losing $1.5 billion in revenue per month they are shut, analysts say: Disney is extending "until further notice" its closures of its US theme parks, Disney World and Disneyland, because of the coronavirus pandemic, the company announced on March 27.
- Analysts lay out the financial damage each of Disney's businesses could face, as it closes parks 'until further notice' and delays films: Disney is one of the media companies most exposed the impact of the coronavirus because of its large theme-park and theatrical businesses.
- Why analysts say Disney and Discovery are the media giants most threatened by the coronavirus, but Comcast could fare better: Companies that generate significant shares of their revenue from theme parks, films, and advertising are most sensitive to the pandemic and the economic downturn it could ignite.
- Why Netflix's business could take a hit from the coronavirus, despite reports that 'stay at home' stocks could benefit: Much of Netflix's revenue growth is international, including markets like Europe and Asia, which are especially vulnerable to the virus.
