Around 18.18 crore shares, or about 4% of company's outstanding shares were eligible for trading in the market post the 30-day lock-in, which hurtled Ola's stock towards Rs 100. While the stock managed to gain some ground later in the day, and was trading at Rs 114.10 when the markets closed today, slightly up from its intraday low of Rs 109. However, it still remained a far cry from its all-time high price of Rs 157.4, which it had hit on August 20th, 2024.
Ola Electric, which currently dominates the Indian EV space, debuted on stock exchanges last month, and was looking to raise Rs 6,145.56 crore via fresh issue, along with an OFS (offer for sale) of 8.49 crore equity shares.
The IPO was oversubscribed by around 4x. Going ahead, the Bhavish Aggarwal-led startup is also set to face intense competition from fellow EV maker Ather Energy. With its IPO set to hit the markets soo, Ather is looking to raise Rs 3,100 crore via fresh issue, and an OFS of about 2.2 crore equity shares. Per the DRHP (draft red herring prospectus) filed by Ather, its net worth for FY24 stood at Rs 545.9 crore.
The remaining 50% of Ola Electric's shares will be eligible for offloading by anchor investors in 60 days from now, or 90 days since the date of allotment. While this event will certainly test Ola's buoyancy in the market, the fact remains that Ola was off to a stellar start days after its listing, when the stock price accelerated to Rs 157.4 on August 20th, 2024.
This skyrocketed the company's valuation well beyond that of established Indian 2-wheeler giants like Hero Moto Corp and Bajaj, albeit briefly. In fact, for a small period, Ola Electric Mobility had recorded valuations higher than that of Tesla's.
For perspective, Ola's market capitalization, as of today, stood at Rs 50,327.57 crore. Bajaj Auto, which listed on the exchanges in 2008, presently has a market value of Rs 3,02,993.79 crore, while Hero Moto Corp, which was listed in 2003, currently has a market value of Rs 1,14,788.59 crore.
However, ever since hitting this peak on August 20th, Ola's prices have only been on a downward journey. However, now that the stock has witnessed a price correction of sorts, the question remains- has Ola corrected enough, or are we still in for further downside? As per SEBI registered Investment Advisor Gaurav Goel, Ola continues to trade in the expensive zone despite recent correction.
"The recent mercurial rise in the stock has been more on the promise it holds for the future. It is the largest
"However, we feel that despite attractive future plans, the stock is currently overpriced. Despite rising revenues, we need to see how quickly it is able to translate widening losses into profits", he continued.
Gaping holes, take a long-term approach
It is hard to overlook the wide, year on year losses that the company continues to incur. As of March 2024, the company had racked up an operating loss of Rs 1,266 crore. Per its Q1FY25 financials, the company's losses before taxes during April-June 2024 grew to Rs 347 crore, up from Rs 267 crore in the year-ago period. The company's cash flows from operating activities continued to be in red, rising from Rs 2,520.25 crores in March 2021 to Rs 15,072.71 crore as of March 2023. Generally, if a company is regularly registering negative cash flows from its primary, operational activity, it is a troubling sign, indicating that the company is spending more than what its making.
Ola continues to rack up major losses in its cell business, which reported a loss of Rs 5 crore in Q1FY25. The segment's operating expenses, however, doubled from Rs 11 crore in Q1FY24 to Rs 22 crore in Q1FY25. Per Agrawal, the indigenously developed 4680 Bharat Cell, which will be integrated in all Ola vehicles starting Q1FY26, will help in bettering the company's profit margins, given that cells constitute around 30-35% of overall vehicle's cost.
Which is why experts suggest not to buy into any short-term euphoria surrounding the stock, and instead, opt for a long-term approach. While there is scope, it is largely unchartered waters, which will have to face the tides of multiple market volatilities and cycles, before it starts to generate sustainable, significant returns.
Goel believes that while the new vehicle segment is a good space to enter, the competition here is going to be stiff. Customer actual response in terms of sales is yet uncertain. "We recommend a buy on dips on this stock. An entry level of Rs 100 would be good point for purchase. It should be kept for the long-term, for a period of at least 3-5 years for realization of its potential"