FINALLY: A CEO has something good to say about US manufacturing
A strong US dollar and deceleration in the world's emerging economies have led to steady decreases in many manufacturing activity indicators.
This, in turn, has led to proclamations that the sector is in recession.
One CEO, however, sees light at the end of the tunnel.
"The offshoring of manufacturing appears to have run its course," Peter McCausland, CEO of Airgas, said in a quarterly conference call Tuesday.
"And new factories are being established in the United States now by both US and foreign companies. So we were in a period of de-industrialization and I think that is reversing itself as well."
McCausland is tapped in to the manufacturing industry and most of the economy because his company sells compressed gasses for everything from nuclear welding to soda fountains.
McCausland does acknowledge, though, that US manufacturing is in a dark place right now, with bad news coming from other companies in serving other industries.
"I think everybody is trying to bring down expectations, but with those manufacturing customers, sales are down so far it's hard to imagine it's going to get worse," McCausland said.
McCausland pointed to a number of reasons for this expected turnaround, but one that he kept coming back to was the turnaround in major fixed and infrastructure investments in the US.
"I'm not an economist, but I do believe that the US share of fixed investment is going to be significantly higher in the next 20 years than it was in the last 20 years," said McCausland.
"That will be partly driven by abundant and inexpensive energy and partly driven by the need for energy infrastructure which - there remains a lot that needs to be built out in this country - and partly driven by other types of infrastructure that have been long neglected."
Additionally, two of the biggest drags on company profits - the strong dollar and low oil prices - will soon turn to positives says McCausland. And he's not alone: Wall Street experts are saying the same things.
"We think abundant and inexpensive energy is ultimately going to be very good for the country," said McCausland.
"The strong dollar ... I don't know how it can get much stronger. Perhaps that's run its course; perhaps that will reverse a little bit if the Fed doesn't raise rates. But we have these currency wars going on ... because the world economy in general is still pretty fragile and governments are trying to stimulate growth."
McCausland's comments preceded an impressive beat from the Chicago PMI index on Friday, a good sign for manufacturing in the Midwest.
So while McCausland recognizes that the economy is in a tough spot, he's finding plenty of reasons to be optimistic.