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The Arab Spring has become the Jihadi Spring as Libya devolved into lawlessness, Egypt reverted military dictatorship, and the uprising in Syria turned into a sectarian civil war that's engulfing Iraq.
On Sunday, the extremists ISIS militants that are leading the Sunni insurgency in Iraq announced the creation of the Islamic State (IS), or "Caliphate," with its chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi "the Caliph" and "leader for Muslims everywhere."
IS is well-funded (largely from extortion and selling oil) and has become attractive for extremists across the globe who want to join global jihad. The group is also savage, crucifying rival Syrian rebels and chopping off the hands of thieves.
Most importantly, IS is consolidating news gains in Iraq while also holding off Iraqi government forces that are bolstered by Iranian-trained militias.
The areas under IS control (in gray) stretch from Aleppo in northwest Syria to Fallujah in central Iraq to a border post near both Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Green: Mainstreem Syrian rebels; Red: Assad regime; Pink: Iraqi government; Yellow: Kurds.
The move is seen by experts as a direct challenge to al-Qaeda as the world's premier jihadist organization.
No matter ISIS perceived legitimacy/illegitimacy, Al-Qaeda Central is in massive trouble now. Welcome to the new era of international jihad.
- Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) June 29, 2014
(For a detailed account of how ISIS formed and split from al-Qaeda, check out this report by Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute and this Politico article by Rania Abouzeid.)
To get an idea of the general IS mindset, here's what an ISIS fighter told al-Monitor:
"Look at Egypt. Look at the way it ended for Muslims who cast their vote for [deposed President] Mohammed Morsi and believed in your democracy, in your lies," The unnamed fighter said. "Democracy doesn't exist. Do you think you are free? The West is ruled by banks, not by parliaments, and you know that. You know that you're just a pawn, except you have no courage. You think of yourself, your job, your house … because you know you have no power. But fortunately, the jihad has started. Islam will get to you and bring you freedom."
Here are some tweets from experts in reaction to the creation of the Islamic State:
ISIS no longer exists. It is now simply "The Islamic State" - i.e. immediate invitation for further pledges of allegiance. Key 24hrs ahead.
- Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) June 29, 2014
Since it's called Islamic State now, leaders of groups outside Syria/Iraq that pledge bay'a to Baghdadi will claim they are in the IS now.
- Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) June 29, 2014
Holy shit, now it hits the fan.
- J.M. Berger (@intelwire) June 29, 2014
Overall the caliphate announcement has a definite "if you're not with us, you're against us" tone that is probably ill-advised.
- J.M. Berger (@intelwire) June 29, 2014