The summer box office is off to a strong start but faces threats, from fewer movies to new 'Star Wars' and 'Lord of the Rings' TV shows

• The summer box office is off to a strong start with "Doctor Strange" and "Top Gun: Maverick."
• But fewer movies are being released, and the box office could taper off later in the season.

With "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" and "Top Gun: Maverick" putting up solid box-office numbers in May, summer movies seem to be making a comeback.

Coming up are other surefire hits like "Jurassic World: Dominion" and potential breakthroughs like "Elvis." Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst at Box Office Pro, is currently projecting the "Jurassic World" sequel could bring in as much as $210 million during its US opening weekend, and Elvis could nab as much as $55 million — both would be solid debuts.

But a closer look at the release schedule, and the overall entertainment business, reveals major hurdles that the theatrical industry will face, even as it charts a recovery.

Most notably, fewer films are being released to theaters than before the pandemic. Through the weekend of May 20, 28 movies had been released in 2,000 or more theaters, according to Comscore. That's a 33% drop from the same period in 2019, when 42 movies had been given a wide release.

The box office was also down by 41% during the same time period, compared to 2019.

At the time of Comscore's analysis, 63 more movies were set for a wide release by the end of this year, which would bring the total for the year to 91. In a pre-pandemic year, the major Hollywood studios alone would release around 120 films to theaters.

Chris Aronson, president of domestic distribution at "Maverick" distributor Paramount, recently told Insider that he expects the trend to continue. The pandemic made studios "more cautious" about releases, he said.

Studios are giving films longer theatrical windows — but also making more movies directly for streaming

A successful exclusive theatrical release can help build momentum for a movie's eventual home-entertainment or streaming release, theater execs say. But the opposite could be true if the movie is a box-office dud.

"There's no safety net,"Aronson said. "If you fail theatrically, you fail post-theatrically,"

The good news for theaters is that studios are once again embracing an exclusive theatrical window, albeit a shorter one than before the pandemic. Forty-five days is emerging as an industry standard before a movie makes its way to streaming services, compared with the 75- to 90-day pre-pandemic window.

But the studios are making content exclusively for streaming, too. To name a few:

• The "Predator" movie "Prey," from Disney's 20th Century Studios, will land on Hulu this year
• A live-action "Pinocchio" will premiere on Disney+
• Warner Bros.' "Batgirl" movie is expected to debut on HBO Max
• Sony, which doesn't have a dedicated streaming service, has a first-look deal with Netflix for any movies it plans to make for streaming

Amazon's March acquisition of the MGM film studio could further complicate things. Amazon has yet to reveal its release strategy for MGM movies. Will the company give the movies an exclusive theatrical release or debut them on Prime Video?

"We want to see if there is a theatrical release model for those MGM pictures still in the pipeline," John Fithian, the CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners, said. "We don't have any answers yet."

Of course, streaming isn't the theatrical industry's only threat. Mooky Greidinger, the CEO of the theater chain Cineworld, said he's more concerned about competition from the live-events industry that is also rebounding.

"My competition is concerts, live theater, sporting events, other things outside the home," Greidinger told Insider during April's exhibitor conference, CinemaCon. "Over the last two years, naturally the demand for streaming increased. But streaming services are competing with each other for attention at home. I think the main attraction on streaming is TV, not movies."

But streaming TV is getting bigger, too.

TV events including new "Star Wars" and "Lord of the Rings" series could dominate the entertainment landscape

Shows like Disney+'s "Star Wars" series, "The Book of Boba Fett" and "Obi-Wan Kenobi," might have been theatrical films before Disney+ came along.

Now, "Star Wars" movies are dramatically slowing down with some planned projects officially on the back burner, while a dozen series are in the works for Disney+. The next big-screen "Star Wars" entry is likely years away, a far cry from Disney's movie-a-year plan when it first relaunched the franchise in 2015.

Disney's five "Star Wars" movies between 2015 and 2019 grossed nearly $6 billion worldwide combined.

And in August and September, when movie theaters will lack the franchise power that has so far boosted the box office, major shows like the "Star Wars" series "Andor" and Amazon's "Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power," will debut.

Granted, Disney+'s May 27 release of "Obi-Wan Kenobi" didn't hurt that weekend's big theatrical release, "Maverick," which earned $160 million over the four-day holiday. That suggests streaming and theatrical events can coexist.

But the shift to streaming for franchises that were once big-screen hits could still impact the overall box office.

This summer's box-office gains could taper off as the season nears its end. IP-driven blockbusters are the movie industry's bread and butter, and they're non-existent in the late-summer months. Industry leaders Insider spoke to are banking during that time on adult-oriented original films like "Bullet Train" in August and "Don't Worry Darling" in September to prove that those movies still have a place in the market.

Meanwhile, blockbuster TV shows like "Andor and "The Rings of Power," along with HBO's "Game of Thrones" spinoff "House of the Dragon," are bound to dominate the pop-culture landscape during that time.

Ironically, movie theaters are looking to Netflix to help address these obstacles.

Theater owners have pushed the streaming company to give its movies more robust theatrical releases for years.

Now, they want Netflix to give movies an exclusive window closer to the traditional studios of 30 to 45 days, and invest in a significant marketing campaign, said a source close to the theatrical industry (Bloomberg recently reported that Netflix is indeed considering a 45-day window for select titles this year, including its "Knives Out" sequel).

"Theaters need content to survive," Aronson, the Paramount distribution exec, said. "If the releases will be lowered by the traditional studios, they have to find content somewhere else."