The movie-theater industry's looming threat: fewer releases could be the new normal

• Movie studios embraced streaming as the pandemic disrupted the theater industry.
• In 2022, as studios commit to a theatrical window, there's a related concern: fewer releases.

The theatrical industry has faced plenty of challenges and changes in the last two years amid the coronavirus pandemic, and that isn't likely to change in 2022.

One of the biggest concerns for exhibitors this year is a "shrinking slate of theatrical releases," according to John Fithian, the head of the National Association of Theatre Owners.

Notably, he's concerned about Amazon's looming purchase of the MGM film studio and how that could be a "potential harbinger of the impact of big tech."

"MGM makes movies for theatrical release and Amazon's all about Prime Video," Fithian told Insider during a recent interview in December.

Still, he said that theaters are having conversations with Netflix and Apple: "It makes sense for some of their movies to go theatrical. We'll look for additional suppliers where we can find them."

But across the board, Hollywood will be releasing fewer movies this year to theaters than they would have before the pandemic.

Fithian said there are typically 120 movies on the theatrical schedule in a given year. This year there's around 90, he said. And that could change as the coronavirus pandemic continues to disrupt the movie business.

The pandemic shifted how media companies thought about movie distribution. As they reorganized around their streaming businesses, they embraced streaming as an alternative or supplement to theaters. Warner Bros. released all of its movies last year simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max. Disney experimented with simultaneous releases at an added cost for Disney+ subscribers (or just released movies straight to streaming, such as Pixar's "Luca").

To exhibitors' delight, Warner Bros. and other studios have promised exclusive windows for theatrical releases this year, with 45 days emerging as a potential new standard as opposed to the traditional 75 days to 90 days, though that's not concrete for all releases.

"It's not going to be the windows of old, but 45-day windows won't be a fixed thing," Fithian said. "Some movies will have longer windows and some will have shorter."

But in a sign of how the pandemic accelerated the shift to streaming, studios aren't just making movies for theaters anymore.

Disney is set to release 30 movies in 2022, half of which will debut on its streaming services, including a new "Ice Age" movie for Disney+ this month and a new "Predator" movie, called "Prey," for Hulu. Warner Bros. is making a "Batgirl" movie for HBO Max.

Warner Bros. is expected to be absorbed into Discovery this year once the Discovery and WarnerMedia merger is approved. Fithian is less concerned about this than he is about the MGM/Amazon deal, though, even if Warner Bros. is making movies for both Max and theaters.

"Warner Bros. is changing owners, and the Warner Bros. team really believes in theatrical releases," Fithian said. "For 100 years they've been believers in cinema. Along comes AT&T, and they change the whole model. But they're not going to be in charge."