- For the past 17 or so years, a Marvel film has kicked off summer movie season.
- But the Hollywood strikes pushed the release date for "Deadpool & Wolverine, so "The Fall Guy" stepped in.
For much of the past two decades, there have been three absolutes in Hollywood: death, taxes, and a Marvel release kicking off the summer movie season.
Since the 2007 release of "Spider-Man 3," the first weekend in May has been home to Marvel's biggest blockbusters. (With the exception of 2020 and 2021, when COVID virtually obliterated theatrical releases.)
But this year, that streak has been broken once again. After the release date for Marvel's "Deadpool & Wolverine" was pushed from May 4 to July 26 after production was delayed due to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, the weekend was left wide open for Universal's stunt-guy action-comedy "The Fall Guy" to jump off a rooftop and straight into theaters at the movie biz's most profitable time of year.
"We feel this is a summer movie, and to have that spot to kick off the summer — we don't take it lightly," "The Fall Guy" director David Leitch told Business Insider.
To say "The Fall Guy" has a lot to live up to being placed in the coveted first weekend in May slot would be an understatement.
"Iron Man" launched the Marvel Cinematic Universe in the slot in 2008, taking in $98.6 million in its opening weekend and going on to gross over $580 million worldwide. 2012's "The Avengers" brought in $207 million opening weekend and grossed over $1.5 billion worldwide.
And who could forget the two movies that closed out the Infinity Stone saga of the MCU, 2018's "Avengers: Infinity War" and 2019's "Avengers: Endgame." Both had opening weekends of well over $250 million, and each took in over $2 billion at the worldwide box office.
'The Fall Guy' could revive the struggling box office amid Marvel fatigue
No one is expecting "The Fall Guy" to do those kinds of figures, but the industry is holding its breath that the film's combination of thrilling stunts and the on-screen chemistry between Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt will be a jolt of energy to the sputtering 2024 box office (it's down 22% compared to this time last year).
"I think it will do well this coming weekend; we view it with optimism rather than skepticism right now," Tim Handren, CEO of San Antonio-based theater chain Santikos Entertainment, told BI.
But Hadren hasn't completely given up on superhero movies, either — the well-received ones still do good business for his theaters. "I'm super looking forward to 'Deadpool & Wolverine,'" he said. "It's going to be the biggest hit of the year."
Still, it's hard to ignore the nagging feeling that the release-date switch-up contributes to the narrative that the once-mighty Marvel Studios is in a slump, as titles like "The Marvels," "The Flash," "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom," and "Madame Web" all underperformed within the last year.
"The fact that a Marvel movie isn't opening the summer movie season is a clear sign of an industry in the midst of transition. Trends are changing and Hollywood is having a spiritual awakening," Jeff Bock, senior box-office analyst at Exhibitor Relations, told BI.
"If 'The Fall Guy' can attract a decent audience opening weekend and maintain a foothold through May, it will tell us a lot about the current state of the marketplace," he said.
'The Fall Guy' doesn't need to earn what past Marvel titles did to be successful
But what the current lull in box office hits from superhero movies has proven is that the movie business can't only rely on those titles. There have to be other big winners, and that's where "The Fall Guy" comes in. Hopefully.
"It's more of a test than a fluke," Bock said of "The Fall Guy" getting the coveted first weekend in May release date. "But make no mistake, stagnant momentum in superhero cinema has led the industry here."
"The Fall Guy" is tracking in the mid-$30 million range for this weekend, multiple industry sources told BI. That's nowhere near what Marvel titles have done the same weekend in the past. But it would still be a strong start for a summer movie season that has "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," "Despicable Me 4," "Twisters," and "Deadpool & Wolverine" all on the horizon.
And if all else fails, the industry can always try going back to its old ways. Because spoiler alert: The title currently scheduled for this weekend next year is another Marvel movie — "Thunderbolts*."