The 'Avatar' sequel is heading to one of the biggest box-office openings of the year — but that won't be the true measure of its success
- "Avatar: The Way of Water" is expected to have one of the biggest box-office debuts of the year.
- It's sold $38 million in advance tickets in the US, according to Variety.
"Avatar: The Way of Water," the long-awaited sequel to 2009's "Avatar," is bound to have one of the best box-office openings of the year in the US this weekend. But it will take weeks to know whether it's the kind of word-of-mouth sensation that the original movie was.
"The Way of Water" has already sold an estimated $38 million in advance US ticket sales, according to Variety, outpacing "Top Gun: Maverick" and "Jurassic World: Dominion." Disney did not immediately respond to a request for confirmation from Insider on that figure.
Momentum has been steady for the movie in recent weeks. The movie has been the No. 1 daily ticket-seller at the ticketing service Fandango since December 5, a Fandango spokesperson told Insider. And Shawn Robbins, Box Office Pro's chief analyst, raised his estimated range for the movie's opening by 9% in his latest projection, to between $167 million and $192 million in the US.
The year's biggest openings at the US box office are:
- "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" — $187 million
- "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" — $181 million
- "Jurassic World: Dominion" — $145 million
Other data, aside from pre-sale estimates, points to a solid debut.
As of December 6, "The Way of Water" was already the eighth most-discussed movie of the year across social platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and TikTok, according to analytics firm Diesel Labs, outpacing other hit movies that have already been released, like "Jurassic World: Dominion."
Robbins predicts that, similar to the first movie, "The Way of Water" could have a more "back-loaded" theatrical run than most blockbusters these days.
The first "Avatar" opened to $77 million but had strong legs for months, dropping a small amount each weekend and eventually grossing over $780 million in the US. For instance, the movie decreased just 2% in its second weekend compared to its first, and then only 9.5% in its third weekend compared to its second. It eventually went on to earn $2.92 billion globally and become the highest-grossing movie of all time.
Those kinds of week-to-week holds are rare in the current theatrical market, but movies like "Top Gun: Maverick," this year's biggest movie, and "Spider-Man: No Way Home," last year's biggest, show that it's still possible with enough sustained interest. Both of those movies played exclusively in theaters for several months, also a rarity today.
"The Way of Water" might have to perform at similar levels if it wants to be a success. Director James Cameron told GQ last month that it would have to be the "third or fourth highest-grossing film in history" just to break even.